基于气候变化脆弱性的适应规划:一个福利经济学分析  

From Climate Change Vulnerability to Adaptation Planning:A Perspective of Welfare Economics

作　　者：郑艳[1] 潘家华[1] 谢欣露[1] 周亚敏[2] 刘昌义[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所 [2]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心

出　　处：《经济研究》2016年第2期140-153,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203231);国家自然科学基金重点项目(70933005);中-英-瑞士"中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC)"资助

摘　　要：气候变化是典型的具有复杂性、长期性和外部性的全球环境问题。气候变化的福利影响及其成本效益评估是适应气候变化的决策基础。本文基于气候变化科学的基本概念和福利经济学理论,构建了柏格森-萨缪尔森社会福利函数,评估了气候变化背景下的社会经济脆弱性与经济福利风险,提出了适用于中国国情的适应规划路径。首先,基于社会福利核心要素的气候变化脆弱性评估结果表明,气候敏感性是影响中国不同地区福利水平和脆弱性的重要因子。其次,依据气候敏感性与适应能力将中国30多个省份划分为三类适应区:发展型适应优先区、增量型适应优先区、发展型与增量型并重地区。第三,采用地区加权方法测算了中国2016—2030年RCP8.5气候变化情景下的气候灾害经济损失及福利风险,提出依据能力原则、需求原则或最脆弱地区优先原则分别由地方政府、部门或中央主导的适应规划设计。Climate change is a typical global environmental problem with complicity, long-range, and externality. Climate change cost-benefit analysis on social welfare impacts is an effective policy tool for adapting to climate change. Based on IPCC conceptual framework and theory of welfare economics, this article builds a Bergson-Samuelson social welfare function, and evaluates climate change vulnerability and economic welfare risk so as to support adaptation planning. Firstly, the vulnerability assessment reveals a significant importance of climate sensitivity on welfare components and regional vulnerability to climate change. Secondly, more than 30 China＇s provinces are classified as three prototypes with comparing their climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity, which is named as developmental adaptation prioritized zone, incremental adaptation prioritized zone, and mixed zone. Thirdly, in order to establish regional priorities for adaptation planing, regional welfare weights are used into climatic disaster damage function and risk assessment during 2016 to 2030 under RCP8.5 climate modeling, while three feasible governance models are suggested to be leading by local, sectoral or central governmental level based on capability approach, needs approach or most-vulnerable-first principle separately.

关 键 词：气候变化 脆弱性 适应规划 社会福利函数 气候变化经济学 

分 类 号：F061.4[经济管理—政治经济学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]