基于ESDA的城市可持续发展能力时空分异格局研究  

Spatial-temporal Differentiation of Urban Sustainable Development in China based on ESDA

作　　者：彭程[1,2,3] 陈志芬[4] 吴华瑞[1,2,3] 孙想[1,2,3] 姚娜[5] 

机构地区：[1]北京农业智能装备技术研究中心,北京100097 [2]国家农业智能装备工程技术研究中心,北京100097 [3]农业智能装备技术北京市重点实验室,北京100097 [4]中国城市规划设计研究院,北京100044 [5]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第2期144-151,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"城市可持续发展能力评估与管理系统研发及示范"(编号:2013BAJ04B04)

摘　　要：可持续发展是复杂城市系统的动态变化过程,准确定量地评估和分析城市可持续发展能力,能够为城市发展战略制定、资源优化配置等提供参考依据,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。本文以2003-2013年间中国30个省级行政区280个地级及以上城市为研究对象,基于数据包络分析(DEA)和探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,研究中国城市可持续发展能力的时空差异特征。首先基于数据包络分析的思路,将资源、环境投入作为输入指标,人口、经济、社会发展作为输出指标,城市每年的发展状况作为评价单元,建立评价指标体系。然后采用探索性空间数据分析方法,分析城市可持续发展能力的时空格局变化,探索其空间分布格局、空间关联模式、空间集聚状态和空间异质特征。结果表明:第一,全国地级以上城市的可持续发展能力上升趋势明显;第二,城市可持续发展能力与经济格局、行政级别存在较好拟合,呈现出东部高于西部、直辖市高于地级市的区域差异特征,地域之间差异正逐步缩小。从空间演变格局来看,2003年、2008年、2013年城市可持续发展能力呈现正的空间自相关,但相关性逐渐减弱;第三,城市可持续发展能力的空间依赖性和空间异质性同时存在,整体热点区主要分布在中国东部地区,而中部、西部地区城市的可持续发展能力逐年提高,并呈局部高值空间聚集状态。Sustainable development is a dynamic change process of complex urban system. Scientific evaluation of urban sustainable development ability can provide reference for the urban development strategy and resource allocation,which is important both in theoretical research and application. Using methods based on the data envelopment analysis（ DEA） model and exploratory spatial data analysis（ ESDA） and data from 2003,2008 and 2013 of 280 cities at prefecture level and above in China,the spatial-temporal differentiation in urban sustainable development are discussed. Firstly,on the basis of data envelopment analysis model,the resource,environmental factors are taken as input indicators and the population,economy,social development factors are output indicators.Meanwhile,the development status of urban each year is seemed as the evaluation unit. Thus,the comprehensive evaluation system which contains 21 second grade indexes is constructed from the five dimensions of environment,resource,population,economy and society. Based on exploratory spatial data analysis（ ESDA） method,the spatial and temporal patterns of sustainable development ability of 280 cities at prefecture level and above in 30 provinces from 2003 to 2013 are analyzed,and the spatial distribution pattern,spatial association patterns,spatial clustering and spatial heterogeneity are explored. The results show that： first,the sustainable development ability of 280 cities at prefecture level and above is on the rise and the gap between eastern and western area gradually reduced; second,the distribution of urban sustainable development consist with the economic pattern and administrative levels,showing the eastern region is higher than the western region and the municipality directly under the central government is higher than the prefecture level city. From the perspective of the spatial evolution pattern,the sustainable development ability of 280 cities in2003,2008,and 2013 has a positive spatial autocorrelation,but the correlation has gradually w

关 键 词：城市可持续发展能力 时空分异 数据包络分析 探索性空间数据分析 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]