基于模糊故障树的煤矿区环境风险评价体系  

Environmental Risk Assessment System of Coal Mining Area Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

作　　者：潘长波 徐龙龙 

机构地区：[1]甘肃能源庆阳煤电有限责任公司,甘肃庆阳745000

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2016年第1期132-137,共6页Journal of Gansu Sciences

摘　　要：鉴于目前环境污染日益严重的现实状况,研究基于环境的自净化能力,分析了煤矿区生态环境的各净化环节,引入了模糊集合理论,并且使用多种模糊数、语言值及精确数值刻画各净化环节事件的发生概率,并将它们归一为梯形模糊数,最终构建了一种基于故障树理论的煤矿区环境风险评价体系。该方法很好地解决了由于煤矿区环境的复杂性与不确定性,造成一些事件(要素)的发生概率难以获得,从而使评价结果误差较大的问题,且方法简单易行,可量化并能优化煤矿区环境系统的可靠性,具有较强的实用性和可操作性。The environmental risk assessment system of coal mining area was set up finally in the article based on fuzzy fault tree by analyzing all purification links of the ecological environment of the coal mining area,introducing the blur muster theory based on the self-purification capability of the environment,depicting the probabilities of occurrence of events in all purifications links by using multiple fuzzy numbers,linguistic values and exact numbers and normalizing them into the trapezoidal fuzzy number in view of increasingly serious environmental pollution at present.The method can solve the problem that the assessment result has great error as a result of hard acquisition of probabilities of occurrence of some events（factors）due to complexity and uncertainty of the environment of the coal mining area perfectly.Moreover,the method is simple,practical,metrizable,capable of optimizing reliability of the environment system of the coal mining area and has strong practicality and operability.

关 键 词：煤矿区环境 模糊故障树 梯形模糊数 风险评价 

分 类 号：O213.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]