气象要素对中国大气能见度长期变化影响的定量研究  

Quantitative Study of the Effect of Meteorological Variables on the Long-Term Variation of Visibility in China

作　　者：刘骞[1] 盛立芳[1,2] 王园香[3] 曹子淇 屈文军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,青岛266100 [3]国家卫星气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2016年第1期47-55,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目41276009~~

摘　　要：近30年中国大气能见度整体呈下降趋势,其中东部地区尤为明显,为揭示复杂气象因素对能见度长期变化的影响,利用1980~2012年中国521站地面气象观测资料,建立了气象要素与能见度之间的多元非线性回归关系。结果表明：相对湿度、风速和气温这3种气象要素对能见度的平均解释方差为22%;其中有68个站点通过了显著性检验（显著性水平α=0.05）,平均解释方差达到55%。这些站点中,相对湿度影响显著的站点主要集中在东南沿海,风速影响显著的站点分布在除新疆以外的中国大部,而气温影响显著的站点主要位于中国中部的带状区域。3种气象要素对能见度的影响存在着时间尺度上的不同,相对湿度和气温对能见度的影响主要体现在线性趋势方面,而风速对能见度长期变化的影响主要体现在年代际变化方面。中国东部地区能见度长期下降趋势主要受70%以上相对湿度减少趋势和4 m/s以下风速年代际变化的影响。There has been a decreasing trend in visibility during the most recent 30 years in China, especially in the east. To investigate the possibility of a multivariate nonlinear regression relationship between visibility and meteorological variables, surface meteorological data （1980-2012） collected from 521 stations were analyzed in this study. The results showed that the average variance of long-term visibility variation caused by relative humidity, wind speed, and temperature is 22%. The regression equation passed the significance test （significance level： a=0.05） at 68 stations （13%）, with a 55% average variance. These stations were then divided into three groups according to different meteorological factors. Stations effectively influenced by relative humidity were found to be concentrated in Southeast China, while stations effectively influenced by wind speed are spread over most areas of China, except Xinjiang, and stations where air temperature is the dominant influence are mostly located in a band across central China. Different meteorological factors show different relationships with visibility： Relative humidity and air temperature influence the linear trend of visibility, while wind speed influences the interdecadal variation. The long-term downtrend of visibility in East China is mainly dominated by the decreasing trend of relative humidity above 70%, and the interdecadal variation of wind speed below 4 m/s.

关 键 词：大气能见度 气象要素 长期变化 多元非线性回归 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]