中国天然气进口空间格局演进及优化路径  

Evolution and optimization of China's natural gas import spatial framework

作　　者：孙聆轩[1,2] 吴晓明[1] 李建平[1] 沈雨晴[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院 [2]四川石油天然气发展研究中心

出　　处：《天然气工业》2016年第2期125-130,共6页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"我国劳动力迁移空间动态及其对区域经济发展的影响研究--基于城镇化与产业集聚的视角"(编号:13XJA790002);四川省软科学研究计划项目"四川页岩气发展战略研究"(编号:2015ZR0040);四川石油天然气发展研究中心"民用天然气价格形成机制及政府科学定价研究"(编号:川油气科SKA15-02);西南石油大学青年教师"过学术关"基金(编号:200831010061)

摘　　要：在天然气进口依存度不断提高的形势下,如何构建合理、安全的天然气进口空间格局,是关乎我国天然气供应安全的重大课题。为此综合运用市场占有率、多样性指数、进口市场结构优化指数(IBSCI)、进口市场结构与出口国比较优势的匹配度、进口治理安全指数等指标,定量分析了我国天然气进口空间格局的演进及优化情况,并与日本及韩国进行动态比较。结果表明:中国的进口市场结构不断得到优化,多元化战略实施初见效果,但很多方面与日本及韩国相比还存在着一定的差距。进而从比较优势、治理安全的视角提出了中国天然气进口空间格局优化路径方向:①LNG方面,积极培育挪威、文莱的进口市场,巩固澳大利亚、卡塔尔的LNG进口份额,探索从加拿大、美国进口的可能性;②管道天然气方面,继续完善西北、东北、西南的天然气战略进口通道建设,加强与俄罗斯、缅甸等国的能源外交。With the increasing dependence on gas import, and for the purpose of the natural gas supply security in China, it is extremely essential to establish a rational and safe natural gas import spatial framework. In this paper, China＇s natural gas import spatial framework was quantitatively analyzed for its evolution and optimization and dynamically compared with that of Japan and Korea by using such in- dexes as market share, diversity index, import market structure optimization index, matching degree between import market structure and exporter comparative advantage and import governance safety index. It is shown that China＇s import market structure is being continu- ously optimized and the effects of diversification strategy emerged, but China still falls behind Japan and Korea in many aspects. Optimi- zation pathways and directions were proposed from the perspectives of comparative advantage and governance safety. It is necessary to develop LNG import markets in Norway and Brunei, to strengthen LNG import shares in Australia and Qatar, and to explore the possibili- ty to import LNG from Canada and America. As for pipeline natural gas, it is necessary to construct natural gas strategic import pathways continuously in NW, NE and SW China and to strengthen the energy diplomacy with Russia and Burma.

关 键 词：中国 天然气 进口市场结构 多样性指数 IBSC指数 比较优势 匹配度 治理安全指数 LNG 管道天然气 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61