浙江沿海热带气旋风场兰金涡旋模型的检验与优化  

Verification and optimization of the Rankine vortex model on TC wind fields over the offshore Zhejiang Seas

作　　者：涂小萍[1,2,3] 王武军 郑健 蒋璐璐 谢华 

机构地区：[1]宁波市气象局,浙江宁波315012 [2]宁波大学宁波市非线性海洋和大气灾害系统协同创新中心,浙江宁波315211 [3]浙江省气象科学研究所,浙江杭州310008

出　　处：《海洋预报》2016年第1期19-26,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY15D050001);宁波市科技计划项目(2012C50044)

摘　　要：基于2010—2013年严重影响浙江沿海的热带气旋资料、浙江省自动气象站及宁波凉帽山370 m高塔资料,引入兰金涡旋模型,提出一种最大风速半径计算方案,进行最大风速半径和不同形状因子的试验和检验分析。结果发现:对于严重影响浙江沿海海面的热带气旋,选择适当形状因子的兰金涡旋模型是适用的,形状因子与热带气旋结构有关,对强风带范围大的热带气旋形状因子取值相对大,形状因子在0.8—1.1之间得到浙江沿海站点兰金风速平均误差最小值。气象站点距离海岸线远近对兰金风速误差有最重要的影响,站点越远离海岸线,其兰金模型风速越接近实况,站点越靠近海岸线,其兰金风速越容易比实况偏强。多元回归订正能在一定程度上减小兰金风速误差。宁波凉帽山高塔资料分析表明:选择适当的形状因子可使得拟合边界层风廓线更接近于实况。Based on the data of tropical cyclones （TC） severely affecting the offshore Zhejiang Seas from 2010 to 2013 and the automatic weather stations data of Zhejiang province and 370 meters tower at the Ningbo Liangrnaoshan hill, a calculation method for radius of maximum wind （RMW） has been proposed with the Rankine vortex model. The experiments for testing RMW and influence factors on RMW are conducted. Results show that the Rankine vortex model is reasonable for those TCs severely affecting the offshore Zhejiang Seas when a proper shape factor is taken into account. The shape factor is related to a TC structure and small absolute errors can be got with shape factors between 0.8--1.1. Further analysis also shows the distance from the station to the coastal line is very important. The closer to the coastal line, the error is bigger. Multivariate regression analysis helps to decrease the Rankine vortex errors. The data at the Liangmaoshan tower indicates that a proper shape factor can make the Rankine vortex model wind profile closer to the observation in the boundary layer.

关 键 词：兰金涡旋 形状因子 热带气旋 边界层 浙江 

分 类 号：P732.3[天文地球—海洋科学]