我国成品油市场现状及未来形势分析  

China′s Oil Product Market Today and Tomorrow

作　　者：吕清龙 邢定峰[1] 刘婷[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院,北京100083 [2]中国石油大学(华东)重质油国家重点实验室,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《中外能源》2016年第2期8-13,共6页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：随着我国经济步入新常态，成品油消费增速也随之放缓，同时新能源对成品油的影响也在逐渐加大。由于产业结构凋整，柴油需求增速明显放缓，甚至出现下降；而汽车行业及航空运输业的发展保证了汽油、煤油消费疑的继续增长。我国成品油产量一直保持稳定的增长态势，新建炼厂和已有炼厂的扩能改造导致产能过剩矛盾，而原油进口权的放开和替代能源的冲击进一步加剧了资源过剩的局面。我国成品油逐步由供需紧张转为供大于求，2014年我国成品油产量高于表观消费量1564×104t。未来成品油市场供大于求的局面可能更加扩大，预计到2020年我国成品油供需富余量将达到4000×104t左右，炼厂需针对市场需求的变化进行适应性调整。炼油行业应合理规划新建炼厂和现有炼厂的扩能改造，追求重质量、重效率的内涵式发展；针对消费柴汽比的下降，炼厂应紧密结合市场动态，通过相应技改措施生产适销对路的产品；适当超前研究将燃料型炼厂转变为化工型炼厂，从而化解成品油供需矛盾。As the Chinese economy shifts toward a ＂new normal＂ , the country＇s oil production consumption has slowed and new energy sources are having an increasing impact on conventional oil products.As a result of in- dustrial structure adjustment,China＇s demand for diesel fuel has considerably slowed and has even shown signs of decline.In contrast,the growth of the auto and aviation industries has ensured a continued increase in con- sumption of gasoline and kerosene.China＇s oil product production has long been growing steadily.The construc- tion of new refineries and expansion of existing refineries have led to an overcapacity and the loosening of control on crude oil import rights and the wider use of alternative energy sources have aggravated the oversup- ply of resources.China＇s oil product supply has gradually shifted from ＂tight＂ to ＂surplus＂.In 2014,China＇s oil product production was higher than its apparent consumption of 1564×104t.The oversupply in the oil product market is expected to increase further in the future.It is predicted that oil product supply in China will exceed demand by some 4000×104t by 2020.Refinei＇ies should adjust their production according to the change in mar- ket demand.The refining industry should work out a rational plan on construction of new refineries and expan- sion of existing refineries and place great premium on quality and efficiency.In response to the decline in the diesel/gasoline ratio in the ketable products by upgradi consumer sector,refineries should closely monitor market dynamics and make mar- ng their technology.They should also study in advance into converting their facilities making fuels to facilities making chemical products to adapt to the change in market conditions.

关 键 词：成品 油消费增速 产能过剩 原油进口权 消费柴汽比 化工型炼厂 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]