概率统计法在页岩气储量静态评估中的应用  

Probabilistic method applied to the static evaluation of shale gas reserves

作　　者：张玲[1] 李军[1] 卢泉杰[1] 邱韵[1] 庄丽[1] 陈萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《石油实验地质》2016年第1期141-146,共6页Petroleum Geology & Experiment

基　　金：国家重大专项"大型油气田及煤层气开发"(2016ZX05060);中国石化科技部项目"页岩气储量计算与评价方法研究"(P15110)资助

摘　　要：页岩气赋存于大面积连续分布、低孔超低渗、富含有机质的页岩中,采用大段水平井压裂改造方可获得商业开发,因此地质认识难度大、储量参数和储量计算结果不确定程度大。采用概率统计法,通过储量静态评估模型构建、储量期望曲线分析,对页岩气储量参数、储量的不确定程度提出定量评估方法,较好地解决页岩气储量参数难以确定问题。客观地描述储量及储量分布,为页岩气储量评估、勘探开发规划和部署提供可借鉴方法。Shale gas is abundant in widespread continuous organic shale with low porosity and ultra-low permeability. Commercial production is possible after horizontal well fracturing. The above characteristics limit geological under- standing, and result in a high uncertainty for reservoir parameters and reserve calculations.We propose a quantitative evaluation method to resolve the uncertainties through a static evaluation model and expectation curve analysis by using a probabilistic method. It offers a better solution for reserve parameters and reserve calculations, and provides a reference method for reserve evaluation, exploration planning and development, and shale gas production.

关 键 词：静态评估 概率统计法 储量 页岩气 

分 类 号：TE155[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]