基于模糊多准则妥协解排序法的光伏发电投资计划优选框架  

Selection Framework of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Investment Plans Based on Fuzzy VIKOR Method

作　　者：乌云娜[1] 胡勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市102206

出　　处：《电力建设》2016年第2期50-56,共7页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271085);北京市社会科学"十二五"规划项目(12JGB044)~~

摘　　要：投资计划优选是光伏发电项目前期工作的重中之重,多准则决策方法在项目优选过程中扮演着重要的角色。但是,常用的多准则决策方法没有考虑决策属性的模糊性和指标之间的冲突性,这将会降低光伏发电项目评估的准确性。因此,该文通过引入模糊集理论和多准则妥协解排序法构建光伏发电投资计划优选框架;利用模糊数代替精确数减少决策信息的损失;通过使用多准则妥协解排序法获得折衷解,解决在存在多项冲突指标时决策结果不能被所有决策者所接受的难题。本框架分为3个部分:评价备选方案的确定、基于群组序关系法的指标权重确定和基于模糊多准则妥协解排序法的投资计划优选,各个部分之间紧密联系,相互影响。最后,以某企业100 MW的地面并网光伏电站项目为例验证了所建框架的有效性和合理性。Investment plan selection is vital in the preparation stage of photovoltaic （PV） power generation project and the multi-criteria decision making （MCDM） methods play the important roles in the process of project plan selection. But the present MCDM methods have not considered the fuzzy nature of decision making and the conflict between the criteria, which decreases the evaluation quality of power generation project. Therefore, this paper introduces the fuzzy set theory （FST） and VIKOR method to construct the decision framework of PV project plan selection. We use fuzzy numbers instead of numerical values to decrease the loss of decision information; and adopt VIKOR method to determine compromise solutions for the problem that the decision results cannot be accepted by all the decision makers when several conflict indicators exist. The proposed framework is divided into 3 parts： the determination of alternative evaluation scheme, the determination of criteria weight based on expert group order relation, and the investment plan selection based on fuzzy VIKOR. These three parts are closely related and influence each other. Finally, taking a 100 MW ground grid-connected PV power station project as example, we verify the effectiveness and reasonableness of the proposed framework.

关 键 词：光伏发电项目 投资计划优选 模糊集 多准则妥协解排序法 群组序关系法 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]