基于风险的化工园区供热工程布局优化  

Optimized planning of the heat-supply project in the chemical industry parks based on the risk assessment

作　　者：候云娟 钱新明[1] 冯长根[1] 多英全[2] 吴宗之[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2016年第1期152-157,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK13B01)

摘　　要：为从风险角度对化工园区枝状热网的布局进行优化,运用风险评估理论,首先建立了枝状热网的风险评估模型;然后建立了基于风险的热网布局优化模型和基于当量费用长度的热网投资模型;最后,应用遗传算法进行枝状热网布局优化,并根据优化目标函数设计了适应度函数,采用单亲进化策略中的交叉和变异算子来保证有效个体的数量。在遗传进化过程中,输出每一代风险最小个体的投资,作为选择最终布局方案的一个参考。结合具体例子,得到了风险最小的较佳热源位置和相应的管网布置方案;输出了不同热源位置下每一布局方案的当量费用长度,分析了不同布局方案的风险和投资分布情况;定义风险和当量费用长度的比值为R/E,用来判断各布局方案的风险和投资的合理性。将遗传算法与Dijkstra和Kruskal算法进行比较,结果表明,遗传算法能够得到风险最小的布置方案,且具有更好的寻优效果。This paper is aimed at presenting an optimized planning proposal of the heat-supply project for the chemical industry park based on the risk assessment. For the said purpose, we have flint of all established a risk assessment model for the heat-supply tree net- work. Secondly, we have developed an optimized model based on the results of our risk assessment and a modified investment model in ac- cordance with the equivalent to the expected investment strategy. And, thirdly, a genetic algorithm has been adopted to optimize the designing work to meet the objective demands of the large-size calcu-lation procedure and achieve the cross-operation by means of the sin- gle transposition operator and the inversion operator to make sure the necessary applicable solutions. In the study of the genetic evolution of the industrial parks, we have worked out the investment monetary size of the best single generation in accordance with the minimum risk val- ue, and the reference to the selection of the final design project of the heat-supply tree diagram. And, next, we have found a better heat source position with the minimum risk value and the corresponding design plot in a form of a specifie example. We have also worked out the equivalent cost of all the likely-to-be optimal layout schemes with different heat source locations on the basis of the analysis of the dis- tributions of the risk values and the investment amounts of all different layout schemes. What is more, having carefully regulated the ratio of the risk value and the equivalent cost of length as R/E, we have used it to compare and determine the rationality of each design project between the risk cost and the investment amount directly. And, final- ly, a eontrastive analysis has been done to compare the optimized re- suits of the genetic algorithm with those of Dijkstra and Kruskal algo- rithm. Thus, it can be concluded that the genetic algorithm can help us to optimize the layout of the heat-supply tree network system from the point of view of the risk assessment s

关 键 词：安全工程 风险评估 遗传算法 布局优化 供热工程 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]