复合自然灾害下的电力系统稳定性分析  

Power System Stability Analysis for Intercurrent Natural Disasters

作　　者：薛禹胜[1] 吴勇军[2,1] 谢云云[2,1] 岳东[3] 林振智[4] 文福拴[4,5] 

机构地区：[1]南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院),江苏省南京市211106 [2]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏省南京市210094 [3]南京邮电大学先进技术研究院,江苏省南京市210023 [4]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [5]文莱科技大学电机与电子工程系

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2016年第4期10-18,共9页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228204);国家自然科学基金重点项目(61533010);中泰合作基金资助项目(5151101161)~~

摘　　要：对自然灾害停电防御的研究至今局限于单种类的自然灾害,而未计及复合灾害之间的推波助澜。自然灾害往往会造成群发性故障,为了防御小概率高风险的复合自然灾害造成大停电,需要在线跟踪外部环境的变化并有效预警。为此提出复合自然灾害造成的群发性故障的风险分析思路和框架,一方面建立电网支路在复合自然灾害下的故障率模型并计算其相关风险,另一方面考虑多种自然灾害的交互影响,在线筛选潜在故障,分析运行的安全稳定性,并提供决策支持。The blackout prevention research against natural disasters has been limited to a single disaster so far, to the neglect of the enhancement effects between intercurrent disasters. As natural disasters often cause power system cluster faults, on-line tracking of external environment changes and effective early warning are needed to guard against blackouts caused by high risk intercurrent natural disasters with low probability. Therefore, a new line of risk analyzing thought as well as a scheme for cluster faults due to intercurrent natural disasters is proposed. On one hand, fault probability models should be developed and the risk of power grid branches under intercurrent natural disasters calculated and on the other, the interactive influence of multiple natural disasters should be considered, potential faults should he screened on line, power system operational security and stability analyzed, and decision support given.

关 键 词：自然灾害 群发性故障 故障率 风险评估 预想故障集 稳定分析 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]