基于ANP-Grey既有居住建筑节能改造项目合同能源管理风险评价  

Risk Assessment Studies on the Contract Energy Management in Energy-saving Reconstruction of Residential Buildings Based on ANP-Grey

作　　者：刘晓君[1] 王斌[1] 白春妮[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《施工技术》2016年第4期56-61,共6页Construction Technology

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部软科学研究项目:我国采暖区既有居住建筑节能改造合同能源管理模式研究(2015-R1-010);国家软科学研究计划基金资助项目:我国采暖区既有住宅建筑节能改造管理模式研究(2011GXQ4D080);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目:基于外部性量化的我国采暖区居住建筑节能改造费用分摊研究(20116120110010);陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地科研促进陕西房地产业健康发展的调控手段及其绩效研究(2010JZ11)

摘　　要：合同能源管理是我国实现既有居住建筑节能改造市场化的重要途径,但其发展和实施却受到政治、经济、技术、管理等多方面因素的制约,这使得节能改造项目具有很大的风险性。在分析既有居住建筑节能改造项目合同能源管理特点的基础上,进行风险评价指标的识别和评价体系的建立。考虑各风险因素之间相互作用关系,运用网络层次分析法(ANP)确定出各风险因素的权重值,在此基础上运用灰色综合评价(Grey)方法,构建了适用于我国既有居住建筑节能改造项目合同能源管理风险评价模型,进行算例分析同时针对重要风险因素从企业和政府角度提出建议。The contract energy management is the important way of the marketization for the energy-saving reconstruction of the existing residential buildings in China. But its development and implementation are restricted by politics, economy, technology, management etc. which result in the energy-saving reconstruction project has great risks. Therefore, based on the analysis of the features of the residential building energy-saving retrofit and energy management contract, this paper recognizes the risk evaluation index and establishes the evaluation system. Considering the relationship among risk factors, the weight value of risk factors was determined by using the network analytic hierarchy process （ANP）. Using grey comprehensive evaluation model （Grey.）, authors build contract energy management risk assessment system adapt to the energy-saving reconstruction project of the existing residential buildings in China, and put forward suggestions to the important risk factors from the perspective of the enterprise and government.

关 键 词：绿色建筑 既有居住建筑 节能 改造 合同能源管理 评价 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学] TU723.1[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]