云南省耕地压力动态变化及趋势预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Cultivated Land Pressure Index on Dynamic Variation in Yunnan Province

作　　者：张川[1,2] 刘淑霞[1,2] 许超 曾维军[1,2] 张建生[1,2] 余建新[1,2] 张耿杰[1,2] 陈永志 

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学水利学院,云南昆明650201 [2]国土资源部"土地利用--云南陆良野外基地",云南昆明650201 [3]云南省农业广播电视学校昆明分校,云南昆明650032 [4]云南省地矿测绘院,云南昆明650218

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第3期113-116,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国土资源部公益性科研专项经费课题(201511003-3)

摘　　要：耕地是土地资源的精华,是保障粮食安全最重要的战略资源之一。运用耕地压力指数模型分析了云南省2000~2010年的耕地压力变化特征,并对其未来耕地压力的变化趋势进行回归分析。研究结果显示：2000~2010年,云南省粮播面积总体呈减少的趋势,而常用耕地面积、粮食单产、复种指数、总人口数量及耕地压力指数却呈持续升高的趋势。未来15年内,云南省耕地压力指数会呈总体降低的趋势,到2030年,耕地压力指数将小于1,耕地压力进一步缓解。控制人口数量、控制耕地非农化、确保常用耕地面积及播粮面积比稳定,加大农业基础设施投入及配套,提高农业科技的转化力度将是解决耕地压力的根本途径。The cultivated land is an important resource, to ensure grain safety as well. The paper based on the model of cultivated land pressure index, analyzed the variation of cultivated land pressure in Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2010, and analyzed the change trend of cultivated land pressure by using regression analysis method. The results show that grain crop sown area showed decreasing trend, while the cultivated land area, grain yield, cropping index, total population and cultivated land pressure index were continues to increase obviously between 2000 and 2010. But in the coming 15 years, the pressure index of cultivated land will be decreased and it will be down to 1 in 2030. Then the pressure index of cultivated land will be further decreased that Yunnan Province will be less than a pressure index of cultivated land. The result indicates that it is the basic way to reduce the pressure of cultivated land and population control, preservation of cultivated land and grain crop sown area, ingrate investment in agricultural infrastructure, and improve agricultural science and technology.

关 键 词：耕地保护 耕地压力指数 变化趋势 云南省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]