我国人口出生率影响因素实证研究——基于计划生育政策、社会保障视角  

Empirical Research on Factors Affecting the Population Birth Rate in China

作　　者：王国军[1] 赵小静[1] 周新发[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029

出　　处：《经济问题》2016年第2期7-11,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"建立社会公平保障体系与维护社会公平正义研究"(13&ZD042);中国企业"走出去"协同创新中心资助(201504YY005B);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研项目(201434)

摘　　要：人口老龄化加剧趋势下,合理调控人口出生率已经成为优化人口结构、促进经济社会可持续发展的必然选择。基于2000-2013年省级面板数据对我国人口出生率影响因素的实证研究结论表明:计划生育政策起主导作用,四类地区生育政策对出生率影响存在较大差异;剔除计划生育政策的影响,社会保障对人口出生率影响为负,而经济发展的主要指标人均GDP对人口出生率影响为正。基于此,我国在调整计划生育政策的同时,应同时考虑社会保障水平提升和经济发展所产生的政策强化或抵减效应。Under the background of population aging, the reasonable adjustment of population birth rate has be-come the inevitable choice to optimize the population structure and promote the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013, the results of the empirical research show that family planning policy plays a leading role, and in four types of fertility policy areas, family planning policies have a big difference on the birth rate. Excluding family planning policy, social security shows negative impact on the birth rate, and the main indicators of economic development, GDP per capita has the positive impact on birth rate. So we should take into account the policy strengthening or offsetting effect caused by the economic development and the social security level when we adjust the family planning policy.

关 键 词：计划生育政策 社会保障 人口出生率 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]