北太平洋海温异常对四川省春季林火的影响  

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of North Pacific on Spring Forest Fire in Sichuan Province

作　　者：甘薇薇[1] 杨淑群[2] 马振峰[2] 刘博 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 [2]四川省气候中心 [3]78138部队

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第6期132-138,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"西南地区旱涝延伸期天气与短期气候预测的新方法与应用"(GYHY201306022);西南区域2013-5西南地区月内重大天气过程预测新技术研究与应用;四川省气象局川气课题(2012-预研-01)

摘　　要：为保护和发展四川省生态环境和森林资源,完善四川省森林火险预报预警业务,笔者利用四川省1979—2012年森林火灾观测数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料以及美国NOAA全球海表温度资料,分析了四川省森林火灾的时空分布特征,并对前期海温影响林火的可能机制进行了探讨。结果显示:四川省林火重灾区(凉山州、攀枝花市和甘孜州)春季林火次数与冬季北赤道暖流区(5°—25°N,165°E—140°W)海温呈显著负相关关系,而与北太平洋暖流区(25°—45°N,165°E—140°W)海温呈显著正相关关系。因此,建立了用于诊断和预测重灾区春季林火异常发生的判别指数FI。通过分析FI与北半球500 h Pa高度场的关系,认为北太平洋海温异常通过持续性地影响欧亚中高纬地区环流异常,进而影响到重灾区春季林火的发生。The paper aims to protect the ecological environment and forest resources, perfect the forest fireforecasting and warning operation in Sichuan Province. The temporal and spatial characteristics of forest fire inSichuan and their relationship with the SST anomalies of North Pacific were analyzed, using the original data offorest fire from 1979- 2012, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the sea surface temperature data fromNOAA. The result showed that a close negative/positive correlation existed between the forest fire in the majordisaster area（Liangshan Prefecture, Panzhihua City and Ganzi） and the early winter SST in the neighborhood ofthe North Equatorial Current Region（5°-25°, 165°E-140°W）/the North Pacific drift（25°-45°N, 165°E-140°W）, respectively. A discriminate index for diagnosing and forecasting the spring forest fire was definedaccording to the correlation distribution characteristics. By analyzing the relationship between FI and 500 h Paheight field in the northern hemisphere, the authors believed that the North Pacific SST abnormalities werelikely to affect spring forest fire in major disaster area through the persistent influence on Eurasian highlatitude circulation anomalies.

关 键 词：森林火灾 北太平洋海温异常 判别指数 大气环流 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]