体育彩民低风险购彩行为阈限与危害的剂量-反应关系研究  

Dose- response Relationship between the Thresholds for Low- risk Purchasing- lottery Behavior and Risk of Harm among Sports Lottery Consumers

作　　者：刘炼[1,2] 王斌[1] 黄显涛[1] 李改[1] 胡月[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学体育学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]湖州师范学院体育学院,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《天津体育学院学报》2015年第5期393-399,共7页Journal of Tianjin University of Sport

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:14BTY007);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(项目编号:14YJC890014);华中师范大学基本科研业务费重大培育项目(项目编号:CCNU14Z02013)

摘　　要：公共健康视角下体育彩民的购彩危害具有普遍性,相比临床病理学购彩危害研究聚焦于问题彩民的诊断和治疗,公共健康理论认为,体育彩民购彩危害的发展是一个连续的过程,研究重心在于一般体育彩民购彩危害的预防。购彩行为在购彩危害的预防中具有重要的应用价值,低风险购彩行为阈限值的有效区分可为购彩危害预防提供理论与实践参考,有助于推动体育彩民购彩危害最小化。采用问卷调查和数理统计法探索体育彩民低风险购彩行为最佳阈限值与危害的剂量-反应关系。结果表明:体育彩民形成了坚持购彩的习惯,购彩频率普遍较高,购彩金钱和时间投入较为理性,但仍有部分体育彩民投入相对过多;体育彩民低风险购彩是指,经历2种以下消极后果的购彩行为;风险曲线分析显示,购彩行为强度越大,体育彩民经历的购彩危害风险越高;ROC曲线分析确定购彩支出占收入比、月购彩金额、月购彩频次和每次购彩前研究时间的最佳低风险购彩阈限值分别为5%、100元、15次和20 min,均能有效鉴别购彩危害;逻辑回归模型分析发现,当超过4个低风险购彩行为阈限值时,体育彩民购彩危害风险会显著增加。低风险购彩行为阈限值的确立对降低体育彩民购彩危害具有一定的实践指导意义。Sports lottery consumers＇ purchasing-lottery harms are universal within a public health framework. Clinical diagnosis focus on diagnosis andtreatment of problem lottery consumers,but the public health theory holds that sports lottery consumers ＇purchasing-lottery harm is a continuum andfocus on prevention strategies of the general sports lottery consumers. Research on purchasing-lottery behavior has important application value in preventingharms,and identifying the thresholds for low-risk purchasing-lottery behavior can provide theoretical and practical reference for prevention,minimizingpurchasing-lottery harm. Using questionnaire and mathematical statistics explored the dose-response relationship between the thresholds for low-riskpurchasing-lottery behavior and risk of harm.The results were following ：Sports lottery consumers had developed the habit of insisting on purchasinglottery,frequency of purchasing lottery was generally higher,expenditure including money and time overall relatively reasonable but excessive for somesports lottery consumers. Experiencing less than two negative consequences of purchasing lottery was defined as low-risk purchasing lottery among sportslottery consumers;Risk curves indicated the chances of experiencing purchasing lottery related harm increased steadily the more often one purchases andthe more money one invests in purchasing;Receiver operating characteristic analysis identified the optimal limits for low-risk participation as investing nomore than 5% of income on purchasing lottery,spending no more than 100 Yuan per month on purchasing lottery,purchasing lottery no more than 15 times per month,and time consumption before purchasing lottery no more than 20 minutes,these could effectively discriminate whether exist the risk ofgambling-related harm;Logistic regression modeling confirmed a significant increase in the risk of purchasing lottery related harm when these limits wereexceeded. A threshold for defining low-risk gambling may eventually form the basis of safe purcha

关 键 词：体育彩民 购彩行为 阈限 低风险 危害 剂量-反应关系 

分 类 号：G804.8[文化科学—运动人体科学]