基于人因组织因素分析的海洋平台火灾爆炸动态风险评估研究  

Research on Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offshore Fire and Explosion Based on the Analysis of Human and Organizational Factors

作　　者：王彦富[1] 李玉莲[1] 闫培娜 张彪[1] 张丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东),山东青岛266580 [2]江苏省安全生产科学研究院,南京21000

出　　处：《中国海洋平台》2015年第6期55-60,66,共7页China offshore Platform

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51409260);山东省自然基金面上项目(ZR2012EEM023);中央高校基本科研业务费-专项资金资助(14CX05035A)

摘　　要：针对传统风险评估方法没有考虑人因组织因素的不足,提出基于人因组织因素分析的动态风险评估新方法。首先详细分析了国内外海洋平台火灾爆炸风险评估的研究现状,从后果和概率两个方面探讨海洋平台火灾爆炸风险评估理论框架的构建,在风险评估理论中引入系统动力学和贝叶斯网络模型,定量分析人因、组织和技术因素对于系统风险的动态影响,为我国海洋平台风险评估工作提供方法上的参考。In order to improve traditional risk assessment methods,a new dynamic risk assessment method is proposed in this paper based on analyzing human and organizational factors.Firstly,the recent research progressions on fire and explosion risk assessment of offshore platform are analyzed in details.Secondly,the construction of a Dynamic Risk Assessment Model for fire and explosion of offshore platform is discussed from both consequence and probability perspective.The dynamic effects of human,organizational and technical factors to system risk are quantitatively simualted by integrating System Dynamics Model,Bayesian Network with the traditional risk assessment methods.It aims to provide guideline for risk evaluation of offshore platform in China.

关 键 词：海洋平台火灾爆炸 动态风险评估 人因组织因素 定量风险分析 

分 类 号：P75[天文地球—海洋科学]