基于模糊数学的大连市雷击风险指数综合评价  

Comprehensive Evaluation of Lightning Risk in Dalian Based on Fuzzy Mathematics Theory

作　　者：王淑一 邹善勇 王蕾[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连市雷电防护中心,辽宁大连116001 [2]大连市气象局气象服务中心,辽宁大连116001

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2015年第4期32-36,共5页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：大连市气象局科技项目(DLQK201416)

摘　　要：通过对气象资料的分析从总体上认识大连市雷电的强度和频度分布特征,寻找影响大连市雷击风险的因子,首次提出雷击风险指数理论,建立大连市雷击风险评价模型。结果将雷击风险指数划分为I、II、III、IV级,结合各风险因子利用模糊综合算法对大连市的雷击风险指数进行计算得出相对应的雷电风险等级。最后通过具体的实例验证,该方法将雷击风险的确定由定性变为定量,能够更加直观、客观地体现项目所处区域的雷击风险,该方法具有实用性,能够提高大连市雷电灾害抵御能力,同时为雷电灾害风险评估提供理论支撑。The research advanced a new theory--Lightning Risk Index Theory and established Dalian Lightning Risk Evaluation Model based on the analysis of meteorological data in terms of the distribution characteristics of the lightning intension, the lightning frequency and the lightning risk factors in Dalian. As a result of this study, the lightning risk index was graded into four levels. And then, correspondent lightning risk levels were calculated with fuzzy comprehensive rating algorithm according to the lightning risk index in combination with the lightning risk factors. Finally, the theory was put into practice, which verified that this method could determine the lightning risk through quantitative rather than qualitative analysis and more directly and more objectively expressed the lightning risk of the experiment area. The theory has been proved applicable and can better serve lightning protection and disaster reduction in Dalian. In addition, it provides a theoretical framework for lightning risk evaluation.

关 键 词：雷击风险 模糊数学 指标 

分 类 号：P427.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]