基于改进的风险矩阵法的生命线网络地震脆弱性分析  

Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of Lifeline Networks Using Improved Risk Matrix Method

作　　者：申思[1] 张明媛[1] 袁永博[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部建设管理系,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2015年第4期963-968,共6页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51208081);辽宁省教育厅高等学校科学研究一般项目(L2014034)

摘　　要：生命线网络的脆弱性不单单只表示地震发生后对网络作用而产生的后果,还应该包括网络的连通情况。本文在重新确定生命线网络脆弱性定义的基础上,运用风险评估理论中的风险矩阵方法综合考虑生命线网络的连通性能和失效后果两个方面来评价生命线网络的脆弱性,并以一个供气管网为例说明改进的风险矩阵法评价生命线网络脆弱性的有效性和合理性,找出供气管网中脆弱性等级最高的节点,分析其脆弱性等级最高的原因,以便于重点保护,并降低网络的脆弱性。Modern societies are becoming increasingly dependent on critical infrastructure systems to provide essential services that support economic prosperity,governance,and quality of life.A nation＇s health,wealth,and security rely on the production and distribution of certain goods and services.Critical infrastructures are the physical assets,processes,and organizations across which these goods and services move.Earthquakes have highlighted the importance of stable electric,gas and oil,water,transportation,banking and finance,and control and communication infrastructure systems.The frequency of earthquakes has been increasing in recent years;hence,the vulnerability of lifeline networks in the event of an earthquake must be studied.In this study,we analyzed the seismic vulnerability of lifeline networks.First,we present the status of domestic and international research on the seismic vulnerability of lifeline networks.Although numerous studies have been conducted on the seismic vulnerability of lifeline networks,most of them considered the seismic vulnerability of lifeline networks in the event of an earthquake to be a series of consequences.In this study,we consider that the lifeline network vulnerability in terms of the consequences of the network after the earthquake as well as network connectivity.Second,we redefined the concept of seismic vulnerability of lifeline networks as the ability of connectivity and enduring failure consequences in the event of an earthquake.Third,on the basis of the new definition of lifeline network vulnerability,we evaluate the lifeline network vulnerability using the risk matrix theory method.This study considers two aspects：lifeline network connectivity and failure consequences.Because network connectivity probability and failure probability have a complementary relationship,connectivity probability represents the possibility of occurrence of a risk in the risk matrix.The failure consequences of a lifeline network can be characterized by the network topology and function change;the

关 键 词：生命线网络 脆弱性 连通性 失效后果 改进的风险矩阵 

分 类 号：TU99[建筑科学—市政工程]