城镇化会提高生活用能需求吗?——基于中国2003-2013年省际面板数据的检验  

Does Urbanization Lead to More Residential Energy Use? Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data from 2003 to 2013

作　　者：林卫斌[1] 周晔馨[1] 苏剑[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院,北京100875 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《财经研究》2016年第3期41-50,共10页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA007)

摘　　要：城镇化进程既是人口由农村转移至城市的过程,也是经济发展和城乡居民收入提高的过程,其对"生活用能需求"的影响相应地有结构效应和收入效应。文章据此构建了一个包含控制变量的城镇化率与人均GDP交互作用的"生活用能需求"模型,并运用中国2003-2013年的省际面板数据进行了系统的实证检验。结果表明:(1)经济发展初期,人口从农村到城市的转移对生活用能具有正效应,但会随经济发展水平的提高而减弱,当经济发展到一定阶段后,结构效应为负。(2)人均GDP对"生活用能需求"的正向影响在城镇化进程中也逐步减弱,但收入效应始终为正。因此总体看,城镇化会提高"生活用能需求",但这主要是由于收入水平提高的结果;仅从人口结构的变动看,在中国目前的发展阶段,人口由农村转移至城市有利于节能。(3)城镇化进程中收入水平提高和人口结构变化对居民"生活用能需求"的不同影响存在地区差异。文章的研究为推进新型城镇化建设和城镇化节能的国家战略提供了经验支持。Urbanization course is not only a process of population transformation from rural areas to urban areas, but also the one of economic development and the increase in urban and rural residents＇ income.And its effect on residential energy demand is correspondingly divided into structure and income effects.This paper accordingly constructs a residential energy demand model of the interaction between urbanization rate and GDP per capita, and makes a systematically empirical test by using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013. It arrives at the following results：firstly, at the initial stage of economic development, population transformation from rural areas to urban areas has the positive effect on residential energy use ,but weakens as economic development level rises; structural effect is negative when the economy develops to a certain stage; secondly,the positive effect of GDP per capita on residential energy demand gradually weakens in the process of urbanization,but income effect is always positive; therefore, as a whole, urbanization leads to the increase in residential energy demand,which is mainly due to the rise in income level; only from a perspective of changes in population structure, population transformation from rural areas to urban areas is beneficial to energy conservation at current development stage in China; thirdly, in the process of urbanization, the effects of the increase in income level and chan- ges in population structure on residential energy demand vary with regions.It provides evidence for the advancement of state strategy of new-type urbanization construction and urbanization-based energy conservation.

关 键 词：城镇化 生活用能 结构效应 收入效应 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]