银行商誉资本与货币竞争性发行——来自中国白银风潮前夕银行微观数据的经验证据  

Banks' Reputation Capital and Competitive Issue of Currencies:Evidence from Micro Data of Banks in Republican China on the Eve of Silver Outflow

作　　者：刘愿[1] 岳翔宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院华南市场经济研究中心,广东广州510006 [2]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2016年第3期95-108,共14页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(12CJL010)

摘　　要：1976年哈耶克提出了货币非国家化理论,主张赋予私人银行独立的货币发行权以约束政府滥发货币的行为,但反对者认为追求私利的发钞行必将无限增发货币引致通胀。文章将银行的发行和信贷统一起来分析银行声誉如何影响其发行行为,研究表明:在竞争性发行条件下,声誉机制能够有效地约束发钞行的行为,银行因追求长远收益而稳健发行。进而,文章以银行的生存历史和是否为上海银行公会会员度量声誉,利用白银风潮前夕中国34家发钞行和150家银行的微观数据检验声誉机制的作用,研究发现:声誉越好的银行,兑换券发行越稳健;声誉为银行带来了诸多经营优势,如更多的实收资本、盈余积累和存款,以致声誉好的银行贷款规模更大,利润水平更高;发钞行确实是因追求长远收益而稳健发行。根据民国时期银行竞争性发行的历史经验,文章首次为货币非国家化理论提供了微观证据,也为当前的货币政策制定和人民币国际化提供了启示。Hayek put forward the theory of denationalization of money in 1976, and suggested that private banks should be allowed to issue money to restrict the issuance of governments.However, the opponents argued that the private note-issuing banks pursuing private profits would inevitably issue money unlimitedly and finally lead to inflation.This paper analyzes the effect of banks＇ reputation on note issuance by unifying both the issuance and credit of banks. It demonstrates that the reputation mechanism could effectively restraint note-issuing banks in competitive issuing environment, and the banks in pursuit ofsustainable long-term profits would tend to issue money in moderate rate to maintain its reputation.Furthermore, it employs the survival history of banks or the membership of Shanghai banking association to measure reputation and makes an empirical study to support the hypothesis of goodwill capital by using the micro data of 34 note-issuing banks and 150 banks during the silver outflow in 1930s.It finds that the banks with good reputation do issue money more soundly,and reputation brings the banks various advantages in business such as more paid-in capital, surplus accumulation and deposits, leading to bigger credit scale of banks with good reputation and profits at higher level; note-issuing banks do issue money more soundly actually owing to long-term profits.According to historical experi ence of competitive issuance of banks in Republican China, this paper provides micro evidence for the theory of denationalization of money put forward by Hayek and some implications for current monetary policy rule and RMB internationalization.

关 键 词：哈耶克 货币竞争 声誉机制 民国自由银行体系 

分 类 号：F129[经济管理—世界经济]