租售比与中国城市住房泡沫  

RENT TO PRICE RATIO AND THE HOUSING BUBBLE IN URBAN CHINA

作　　者：况伟大[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院财务与金融系

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2016年第2期46-58,共13页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"后金融危机时代的中国住房市场风险与银行危机研究";国家自然科学基金面上项目"房价波动与房贷违约风险"(71373276)的资助

摘　　要：本文在住房消费性和投资性需求基础上,通过泡沫和无泡沫租售比测度住房泡沫。本文对中国1996—2013年35个大中城市数据分析发现:第一,北京、上海等16个城市存在住房泡沫;第二,房价预期易催生东部和一线城市而非中西部和二三线城市住房泡沫;第三,利率政策对抑制中西部和二三线城市住房泡沫比东部和一线城市更有效;第四,住房存量过大引发住房泡沫;第五,房贷和开发成本助长住房泡沫;第六,土地财政助长住房泡沫,但股票市场回报率抑制住房泡沫。From the perspectives of consumption demand and investment demand, this paper develops a theoretical model to measure housing bubble by equilibrium rent to price ratio with bubble and without bubble. Using the housing market databases of China＇s 35 large and medium-size cities over 1996--2013, this paper finds 16 cities （e. g. Beijing, Shanghai） exist distinct housing bubble. The expectation of hous- ing price more easily gives rise to housing bubble in China＇s eastern and first-tier cities than the middle and western and second and third-tier cities. Interest rate policy has a more valid effect in curbing housing bub- ble for the western and middle or second and third-tier cities than the eastern or first-tier cities. The over- building causes housing bubble. Mortgage lending and development cost fuel the housing bubble forma- tion. The land revenue maximization facilitates housing bubble, while the stock market yields prevent housing bubble formation.

关 键 词：无泡沫租售比 泡沫租售比 住房泡沫指数 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]