2015、2020年我国居民预期寿命测算及影响因素分析  

The Estimation of Chinese Life Expectancy in 2015 and 2020 and Influence Factors

作　　者：蔡玥 孟群 王才有 薛明 缪之文 

机构地区：[1]国家卫生计生委统计信息中心,100044

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2016年第1期2-4,8,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(71403189);国家科技支撑计划项目基金(2013BAI04B02)

摘　　要：目的测算"十二五"期间我国居民预期寿命变化情况,预测2020年预期寿命水平,分析主要影响因素。方法根据国家统计局第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查资料、国家卫生计生委生命登记数据、全国妇幼卫生监测数据等,采用指数回归、寿命表、趋势外推等方法对我国居民预期寿命及去死因预期寿命进行估算。结果 2015年我国居民预期寿命测算结果为76.2岁,期望寿命增长主要贡献人群由5岁以下儿童向60岁以上老人转变,呼吸系统疾病死亡率的降低成为过去25年预期寿命增长的最主要原因,恶性肿瘤及心脑血管疾病是当前造成我国居民预期寿命损失的主要原因。结论 "十二五"期间我国居民预期寿命增长1.4岁,健康公平性明显改善,慢性病对预期寿命影响日益显著。Objective To estimate the Chinese life expectancy during the period of the twelfth five-year plank,to fore- cast the Chinese life expectancy in 2020 and to analyze the influence factors. Methods Basing on the data of the 4th, 5th, 6th national census from NBS, the vital registration data and maternal and child health data from NHFPC, using the method such as exponential regressions, life tables and trend extrapolations, we estimated the life expectancy of Chinese residents. Results Life expectancy in 2015 has reached 76.2 years old. The main contribution population to the growth of life expectancy has changed from the under 5 to the above 60. The reducing of the respiratory disease mortality explained the most proportion of life expectan- cy growth during the last 25 years. Cancer and CVD are the main causes of life expectancy loss currently. Conclusion During the period of the twelfth five-year plan, Chinese residents＇ life expectancy has increased I. 4 years old. Health equity has in- creased. NCDs are playing more and more significant impact on life expectancy.

关 键 词：预期寿命 影响因素 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]