信息化条件下CDM交通分布模型修正与验证  

Modification and Validation of CDM Trip Distribution Model Under Information Condition

作　　者：李春燕 叶晓飞[2] 陈峻[3] 孙正安 

机构地区：[1]深圳市综合交通运行指挥中心,广东深圳518041 [2]宁波大学海运学院,浙江宁波315211 [3]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [4]深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心,广东深圳518021

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2015年第6期58-63,70,共7页Transport Research

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2011AA110304);国家自然科学基金项目(51408322)

摘　　要：为了研究信息化条件下交通出行分布规律,以基于最大熵理论的目的地竞争力分布模型(CDM)为研究对象,从出行者对目的地选择行为这一微观角度出发,引入目的地强迫度和信息强迫度两个参量,对CDM进行修正。通过建立无信息和有信息两种假设情景,以弹性出行和非弹性出行两种出行目的为分类,分析出行者对不同类型出行目的地的选择过程,建立最大熵优化模型,通过求解引入新参量后的多目标优化问题,建立CDM交通分布修正模型并进行参数估计。利用南京市居民出行调查数据对CDM修正模型进行验证,并与传统的双约束模型进行对比,结果显示CDM修正模型拟合误差在2%以内,精度较高。改进后的CDM修正模型不仅能够减小拟合误差,而且能够体现出行目的地的选择行为对交通分布的影响程度,在信息化条件下能够很好地模拟居民出行分布规律。： In order to study trip distribution under information condition, a competing destinations model based on maximum entropy theory was taken as the research objective. From the microcosmic standpoint of travelers＇ destination choice behavior, the CDM was modified based on two new introduced parameters, which were trip destination forcing factor and information effecting degree. Two hypothetical scenarios with and without information were established, compulsory trip destination and non-compulsory trip destination were classified, travelers＇ choice process of different trip destinations were analyzed and the maximum entropy model was founded. The multi-objective optimization problem with new introduced parameters was solved, the modified CDM trip distribution model was founded and parameters were estimated. The modified CDM was verified by using the resident trip survey data in Nanjing and was compared to the doubly constrained distribution model. The result shows that the fitting error of the modified CDM is under 2% and much more precise. The modified CDM not only decreases the fitting error but also reflects the impact of travelers＇ destination choice behaviors on trip distribution. It is suitable for describing trip distribution under information condition.

关 键 词：城市交通 信息化条件 交通分布 最大熵 CDM修正 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]