Historical Change and Future Scenarios of Sea Level Rise in Macao and Adjacent Waters  

作　　者：Lin WANG Gang HUANG Wen ZHON Wen CHEN 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperature East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 [2]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 [3]Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875 [4]Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [5]Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2016年第4期462-475,共14页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955604);the National Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project of China (Grant No. 41425019);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91337105, 41461144001, 41230527, and 41275083);Public science and technology research funds projects of ocean (201505013)

摘　　要：Against a background of climate change, Macao is very exposed to sea level rise （SLR） because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macao, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macao is now rising at an accelerated rate： 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr I over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macao contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macao will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the --8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65 118 cm--double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.Against a background of climate change, Macao is very exposed to sea level rise （SLR） because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macao, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macao is now rising at an accelerated rate： 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr I over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macao contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macao will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the --8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65 118 cm--double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.

关 键 词：MACAO sea level rise emissions scenario climate sensitivity vertical land movement uncertainty 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] P548.2