油价-操作成本相关性对油气项目评价的影响  

Influence of Relationship between Operational Cost and Oil Price on Evaluation of Oil and Gas Development Project

作　　者：王晓宇[1] 罗东坤[1] 郭瑞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京102249

出　　处：《技术经济》2016年第2期88-93,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"基于中国石油安全视角的海外油气资源接替战略研究"(11&ZD164);国家科技支撑项目(2014BAC01B02)

摘　　要：系统分析了油价与操作成本之间的传导机制和相关性。利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,建立了油价与操作成本的相关随机变量进行经济评价,分析了油价与操作成本的相关性对项目评价的影响。结果表明:当不考虑油价与操作成本的相关性时,净现值法会低估项目价值,导致项目净现值对油价变化更加敏感;当油价出现极端波动时,忽视两者的相关性可能导致错误的投资决策。This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism and the relevance between oil price and operational cost. On the basis of NPV meth- od, using Monte Carlo simulation method to establish the random variable representing relevance between oil price and operational cost, and ana- lyzes the impact of this relevance on project evaluation. The results show as follows：without considering this relevance,NPV method underesti- mates project＇s value and leads to the increasing of sensitivity to oil price; when oil price appears extreme volatility,ignoring this relevance could lead to wrong investment decisions.

关 键 词：油价 操作成本 净现值 项目评价 油气项目 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]