高速铁路影响下的经济增长溢出与区域空间优化  

Economic Growth Spillover and Spatial Optimization of High-speed Railway

作　　者：王雨飞[1] 倪鹏飞[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100028 [2]中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心,北京100028

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2016年第2期21-36,共16页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"促进房地产市场稳健均衡发展对策研究"(批准号09&ZD027);中国社会科学院创新工程项目"新型城镇化与房地产发展"(批准号2016CJY006)

摘　　要：交通对经济发展产生了增长效应和结构效应。增长效应主要体现在交通发展促进了区域间的经济溢出进而实现经济增长,而结构效应则是交通发展对经济空间格局的改变。两种效应并存且都是交通发展的结果,高铁的发展更加强化了这两种效应。本文梳理了交通发展产生这两种效应的作用机理,并将高铁开通后城市间的最短时间距离纳入实证检验中,分别用空间计量模型和超制图学的方法检验交通对经济发展的增长效应和结构效应。全国284个地级及以上城市的计量结果显示,高铁开通后,中国区域间经济增长的溢出效应确有提高,同时也证明了交通对经济发展存在增长效应。基于包括高铁在内的不同交通方式时速绘制的时间距离地图表明,交通对经济发展产生了结构效应,交通发展改变了区域和城市的空间结构、分布结构和层级结构。从全国范围看,经济基础相对较好的东部和中部城市进入中心区,而基础薄弱的东北和西部地区面临边缘化的危险。Traffic has growth effect and structure effect on the economic development. The growth effect lies in the regional economic spillovers brought by traffic development. The structure effect is the change of spatial economic pattern resulted from traffic development. These two coexisting effects caused by traffic development are both enhanced by the development of high-speed railway. The paper reviews the mechanism of these two effects in transportation development. Including the shortest time distance between cities into the empirical test, the paper verifies the two effects of traffic development on economic growth through spatial econometric model and metacart ography. Based on the econometric results of 284 Chinese cities, it is proved that the spillover effects of regional economic growth in China has increased since the opening of high-speed rail. The result also shows that traffic has growth effect on economic growth. According to the map of the shortest time distance between Shanghai and other Chinese cities, the paper concludes that traffic development has structure effect over economic development through changing the regional and urban spatial structure, distribution structure and hierarchical structure. Nationwide, the eastern and central Chinese cities with relatively better economic foundations are being centralized while the northeast and western regions are faced with the possibilities of marginalization.

关 键 词：高速铁路 经济增长 空间溢出 空间优化 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]