环境规制强度变化对制造业“清洁化”的影响分析——基于中国30个省域面板数据的验证  

Analysis of the Influence of Environmental Regulation Intensity on the Manufacturing's “Cleaner”——Based on Panel Data of 30 China's Provinces

作　　者：徐常萍[1,2] 吴敏洁[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学,南京211102 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2016年第3期127-134,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学发展报告项目"中国制造业发展研究报告"(项目编号:13JBG004)资助;中国制造业发展研究院课题"环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的影响分析"(项目编号:SK20130090-30)

摘　　要：随着工业化进程的加快,经济在实现高速发展的同时,必然会带来一系列的环境问题。为了应对环境污染和生态环境恶化,各国普遍对工业（尤其是制造业）实施了环境规制。那么,严格的环境规制真的能促进制造业的“清洁化”吗？本文利用中国30个省（市、自治区）2009~2013年的制造业数据,对中国制造业“清洁化”高度的影响因素进行灰色关联分析,并通过构建GM（1,1）模型进行预测,并得到结论：环境规制是影响制造业“清洁化”发展的最重要因素,但是,环境规制强度与制造业“清洁化”高度呈“剪刀差”现象。With the speeding up of industrialization process, the economy achieves rapid development at the same time brings a series of environmental problems. In response to environmental pollution and ecological environment deterioration, countries generally implement environmental regulation on industry, especially the manufacturing. So, can tighter environmental regulation really promote manufacturing ＂cleaner＂？ In this paper, based on China＇s 30 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） manufacturing data in 2009- 2013, grey correlation analysis is constructed to analyze the influencing factors of manufacturing＇s ＂clean＂ height. Furthermore, base on the gray forecast theory, a dynamic model- GM（1,1 ） model is pointed out to forecast the trend. Conclusions are as following： environmental regulation is the most important factor in the manufacturing＇s ＂clean＂ process. However, phenomenon of ＂price scissors＂ appears between the intensity of environmental regulation and manufacturing＇s ＂clean＂ height.

关 键 词：环境规制 制造业 “清洁化” 清洁产业 环境成本 技术创新 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]