中国大学生就学省际迁移模式研究  

Research on the Interprovincial Migration Pattern of College Freshmen in China

作　　者：刘昊[1] 潘昆峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院 [2]中国人民大学教育学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2016年第1期90-98,127-128,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"招生计划宏观调控对我国青年人口迁移的影响及作用机制研究"(编号:CFA120122)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章利用2010年全国高校招生数据,分析了中国大学生跨省就学迁移模式,并利用扩展的引力模型对影响因素进行了探讨。研究发现,跨省就学迁移呈现出由中部人口大省和西部省份向京、津、沪、鄂等高校密集省份迁移的特点,与全国人口流动模式存在较大差异。这主要是由于大学生跨省就学迁移不仅受人口、空间和经济因素的影响,还受生源省和就学省高等教育规模和结构的影响。央属、省属和民办高校的大学生就学迁移分别表现出"主动选择型"、"被动挤出型"和"被动逃离型"3种不同的模式。"主动选择型"迁移的主要驱动力为外省央属高校和本省优秀学生间的相互吸引,经济和距离因素影响较弱;"被动挤出型"迁移主要源于本省的升学竞争;"被动逃离型"迁移除了受本省升学竞争压力的影响外,学生的经济支付能力也起到一定的作用。文章认为,各省的高等教育资源会影响高学历人口的跨省迁移,进而影响人力资本再分布和区域发展。Based on China's college enrollment data in 2010, this paper analyzes the interprovincial migration pattern of college freshmen and examines the determinants with the extended 'gravity model'. The empirical result indicates that differing from national migration patterns of floating population, high school graduates from populous provinces and western provinces migrate to the provinces where colleges are densely distributed such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Hubei. This is mainly due to the fact that interprovincial migration of college freshmen is determined not only by population, distance and economy factors, but also by interprovincial distribution of higher education. Migration of students to colleges administered by the central and local governments and owned privately appear to have divergent patterns, which can be recognized as 'positive migration', 'passive push-out' and 'passive flee'. 'Positive migration', upon which economy and distance exert less influence, is driven principally by the mutual attraction between national colleges and high school graduates. 'Passive push-out' and 'passive flee' are mainly caused by intra-provincial college entrance competition, and 'passive flee' is also affected by students' affordability. It implies that higher educational resources in each province significantly impact interprovincial migration of higher educated population and then impact human capital redistribution and regional development.

关 键 词：就学迁移 引力模型 央属高校 省属高校 民办高校 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学]