房价上涨对人口出生率的影响——基于中国1999—2013年数据的实证研究  

High Housing Prices' Influence on Fertility Rate:Evidence from China Cities from 1999 to 2013

作　　者：刘晓婷[1] 张敬石[2] 胡雍[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [2]兴业银行投资银行部,北京100020 [3]浙江工商大学经济学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2016年第1期53-61,共9页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

摘　　要：改革开放以来,在经济发展取得令人瞩目成绩的同时,生育率的持续下降、人口老龄化的急速加剧正使我国发展面临新的挑战。引起生育率下降的因素有很多,住房作为家庭的重要支出,房价的过快上涨可能会给家庭生育决策带来一定影响。通过对全国29个省（市、自治区）1999—2013年的面板数据的考察,分析房价和出生率之间的关系。结果表明：房价对人们的生育行为产生显著的负向效应,房价平均上升1个百分点,出生率会下降大约0.1~0.15个百分点。因此,采取措施抑制房价的不合理上涨在人口学上具有重要意义。With the reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements on economy development. Meanwhile,the country is encountering new challenges from sustain decline of fertility rate and aging of population. There are many factors which cause the decline of fertility rate,and one of them is house price. As the biggest single line in the typical household budget,the cost of housing has played an important role in fertility rate. This paper verified the relationship between house prices and the birth rate,based on the 29 provinces in 1999—2013 panel data. The results show that the house prices have a significant negative effect on fertility rate. With house prices rising 1%,the birthrate will decline about 0. 1% ~ 0. 15%. Therefore,taking steps to refrain from unreasonable rise of housing prices is of great significance in demographic.

关 键 词：房价 出生率 生育行为 新家庭经济学 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]