中国制造业出口比较优势动态演变原因探析--基于人口年龄结构视角  

Dynamic Evolution of China Manufacturing Industries' Export Comparative Advantage : A Perspective of Demographic Age Structure

作　　者：王有鑫[1] 赵雅婧 

机构地区：[1]中国银行国际金融研究所,北京100818 [2]中国出口信用保险公司博士后科研工作站,北京100033

出　　处：《南方人口》2016年第1期26-37,50,共13页South China Population

基　　金：中国博士后科研基金一等资助项目“劳动力年龄结构与出口比较优势:解构作为渠道的技能”(项目编号:2015M570217);国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国企业低价出口之谜:基于企业边际成本加成率的研究”(项目编号:71203104);国家自然科学基金青年项目”社会关系对民营企业出口行为的影响机制:基于企业间关系与政企关系的研究“(项目编号:71103153)资助

摘　　要：人口年龄结构变动给中国出口比较优势动态演变带来了机遇。本文首先利用显示性比较优势指数、Michaely指数和净出口率指数衡量中国2000-2013年27个制造业行业的出口比较优势,发现现阶段中国出口比较优势仍然以劳动密集型商品为主,但出口比较优势开始向资本密集型商品转移。其次,分别利用三种人口老龄化和少子化指标对二者关系进行实证检验,发现无论是从生产还是消费角度来说,人口老龄化程度加剧提高了劳动密集型商品的相对价格,有利于资本密集型商品出口比较优势提升;如果只考虑出口,少儿人口比重下降对资本密集型商品的显示性比较优势有利,但对同时考虑进口和出口的Michaely指数和净出口率指数不利。此外,还发现外资流入和能源依赖度提高对行业RCA指数有利,全要素生产率和人力资本提高对Michaely指数有利。The changing of demographic age structure brings opportunity to China export comparative advantage. The revealed comparative advantage index, Michaely index and net export rate index are used to measure the export comparative advantage of 27 industries in China from 2000 to 2013, and it is found that Chinese export comparative advantage is still mainly based on labor-intensive industries, but begins to move to capital-intensive industries. The test of three population aging indexes and three low birth rate indexes empirically finds that the rising aging increased China's labor-intensive costs but helped to raise the comparative advantage of capital-intensive goods' export considering both consumption and production.Meanwhile the low birth rate and decrease of young population benefit the capital-intensive industries' RCA index, but negative to Michaely index and net export rate index. FDI and the rising of energy dependency are favor of industries' RCA index, the progress of TFP and human capital are helpful to improve Michaely index.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人口少子化 出口比较优势 动态演变 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]