体育彩票销量影响因素研究——以山东省为例  

Factors Influencing Sales of Sports Lottery in Shandong Province

作　　者：刘圣文[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学体育学院,山东济南250061 [2]山东体育学院,山东济南250001

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2016年第3期29-34,共6页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

基　　金：山东省体育局课题"山东省体育彩票竞争战略研究"(2015-032)

摘　　要：以山东省体育彩票销量为研究对象,采用面板数据模型,分析了影响彩票销售量的因素。通过构建动态面板计量模型,探索内部经营管理因素、外部经济社会变化因素和过去销量水平对彩票销量的影响。同时采用一阶滞后差分作为工具变量,解决了动态面板模型的内生性问题。最后还引入政策变量,分析了互联网彩票停售政策对山东省体育彩票销量的影响。结果显示:销售终端数对所有彩票的销售量都有正向的显著性影响;市场营销费用增长显著地增加了返奖率低的彩票的销售量;人均GDP增长对于竞猜型彩票影响最大,对于主要依赖大户投注的十一运夺金游戏没有显著性影响;人口增长对所有彩票销售都没有显著性的影响;国家互联网彩票停售政策对山东省体育彩票销量带来了非常显著的负面影响。The objective of the study was to analyze the variables of the sales of sports lottery in Shandong Province. By u- sing a dynamic panel data model, this study investigated the effects of internal management factor, the external economic- social factor and the historical sales levels on the lottery sales. The endogenous problems of the dynamic panel model were solved using first lagging difference as the instrumental variable. The influence on the sales of Shandong sports lottery by stopping selling online lottery was analyzed by using policy variables. The study showed that the number of terminal sales had positive effect on the sales of all kinds of the lotteries. The sales of lotteries with low return award rate increased sig- nificantly with the rising of marketing expenses. The increase of the GDP per capita raised the sales of Sports Lottery, but it had no significant influence on Five Out of Eleven, which relied on the large bets. The growth of population did not af- fect the sales of all kinds of lotteries. The policy of stopping selling online lottery had a significantly negative effect on the sales.

关 键 词：体育彩票 超级大乐透 竞猜型彩票 动态面板模型 山东省 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]