农业全要素生产率的地区差距及其增长分布的动态演进——基于非参数估计方法的实证研究  

Regional Disparity of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity and Its Growth Dynamic Evolution——Based on Non-parametric Estimation Methods

作　　者：尹朝静 李谷成[1] 贺亚亚[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第2期38-46,135-136,共9页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国全要素生产率增长:结构调整;比较优势与动态演进"(71273103);国家自然科学基金项目"劳动力成本上升对农业生产的影响机理与实证研究"(71473100);国家"万人计划"青年拔尖人才支持计划;华中农业大学自主科技创新基金项目"结构调整;比较优势与生产率增长"(2012YQ003);湖北省新世纪高层次人才工程项目"湖北省生产率研究"(2011RC)

摘　　要：采用DEA-Malmquist生产率指数对中国30个省(市、区)1998-2011年间农业全要素生产率进行核算,并基于此以累积农业相对全要素生产率为指标,利用核密度和条件密度估计方法,系统考察了中国农业全要素生产率的地区差距及增长分布的动态演进。结果表明:中国农业全要素生产率非均衡性空间特征比较明显。基于农业全要素生产率变化趋势的差异可将30个省(市、区)划分为"高速组""快速组""慢速组"与"零速组"四类地区。中国农业全要素生产率地区差距呈扩大趋势,并且增长分布形状以"单峰"分布为主,但"双峰"分布趋势开始显现。其中,东部地区出现"三极"分化现象;中部地区逐渐由"单峰"分布变成"双峰"分布;西部地区则有"两极"分化的可能。中国农业全要素生产率增长分布具有很强的内部流动性,并表现出"两极"分化的趋势。从三大区域来看,中部地区农业TFP增长分布表现出流动性的同时呈"多峰"分布,而东部地区和西部地区则并未出现"多极"分化。This paper firstly uses DEA-Malmquist productivity index to estimate provincial agricultural total factor productivity(TFP)from 30provices(autonomous reigons and cities)of China from 1998 to 2011,and then gets the cumulative agriculture relative TFP index.On the above basis,this paper conducts a systemic investigation of dynamic evolution of regional disparity and distribution of agricultural TFP in China by using Kernel density estimation and Conditional probability density estimation.The result shows that China's agricultural TFP demonstrates obvious spatial nonequilibrium characteristics.According to differences in agricultural TFP trend,30provinces(autonomous reigons and cities)can be classified into four types,they are'high-speed growth','rapid growth','slow-speed growth'and'zero growth'.With the use of Kernel density estimation,the gap tends to expand among regional agricultural TFP.Distributions are mainly in 'unimodal'shape,'bimodal'distribution trends are emerging.Three regions have different trends.Eastern China presents a 'tri-polar'differentiation phenomenon.Central region has gradually switched from'unimodal'into 'bimodal'distribution.And there may be'bipolar'differentiation in western areas.The conditional probability density estimation has a strong internal mobility in the distribution of Chinese agricultural TFP growth,with a bipolar differentiation trend.As for the three regions,distribution of agricultural TFP growth in the central region shows fluidity with a'multi-modal'distribution,while no 'multi-polar'division is appearing in the eastern and western China.

关 键 词：农业全要素生产率 动态演进 核密度 条件密度 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]