航班飞行计划中燃油计算的风险传导分析  

The Research on Risk Conduction of Fuel Calculation in Flight Planning

作　　者：陈洁[1] 池宏[1] 邵雪焱[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2016年第1期110-116,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

摘　　要：航空公司运行控制部门制定燃油计划需要依据航空器适航性、航行资料、天气资料、备降机场等来自不同部门的信息,某一工作环节信息出现的偏差可能导致飞机加油量不准确,影响飞行安全。本文依据对航空燃油计算过程的机理分析,构建了输入因素对输出风险影响的定量计算模型,在此基础上,研究了航空燃油计算流程上各个工作环节信息偏差的传导问题,对安全风险进行了定量研究。通过对A航空公司B航线实际燃油数据的案例分析,借助蒙特卡洛模拟,分析了爬升顶点重量的偏差对飞机落地剩油可持续时间的影响程度,验证了本文所提方法的可行性和有效性。The fuel planning is made by the Airplane Operation Control Department based on airworthiness intor- mation, navigational data, weather data, alternate airport and other factors from different departments. Deviation of any information above may result in failure on accuracy of planning, causing unsafe conditions to flights. A calculation model is constructed to quantify the effect of input on the output, basing on the mechanism analysis of fuel-planning. Meanwhile, a safety risk conduction problem is studied to quantitatively describe the flow of devi- ation through the fuel - planning process. The relationship between the deviation of the weigt-of-TOC and the landing residual oil is analyzed with Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility and the validity of our research are verified through the case study.

关 键 词：风险管理 流程管理 飞行计划 运行控制 数理统计 蒙特卡洛 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]