2015年世界船舶市场评述与2016年展望  

Review of world ship market in 2015 and 2016 predication

作　　者：李源[1] 秦琦[1] 祁斌[1] 沈苏雯[1] 刘方琦 

机构地区：[1]中国船舶及海洋工程设计研究院,上海200011

出　　处：《船舶》2016年第1期1-15,共15页Ship & Boat

摘　　要：文章对2015年世界经济、航运、造船市场进行回顾,并对2016年市场发展予以展望。2015年,不同经济体的经济增长分化迹象日趋明显;油船:航运市场和新造船市场一枝独秀;箱船:航运市场低迷,运力过剩,然而2015年订单飚升(主要指超大型集装箱船),但2016年难以再现;干散货船及海工:市场低迷,订单严重下滑。新船价格持续下降。预计2016年世界经济总体略优于2015年;航运市场贸易量同比将出现增长,但难以抗衡2016年运力的大幅增长,市场供求仍失衡;预测2016年新造船市场逊于2015年,散货船、集装箱船和油船存在局部性机会,海工市场维持弱势。Based on the review of world economy, shipping and shipbuilding market in 2015, this paper forecasts the development trend in 2016. In 2015, the dif erentiation of the economic growth in the various economies has become increasingly obvious. The tanker and its newbuilding market is thriving, while the container ship market is extremely low with excess capacity. However, the container ship orders in 2015 are breaking out, mainly referring to the orders of the large container ship, which may be dii cult to reproduce in 2016. The markets of dry bulk carrier and ocean engineering remain depressed with serious descending in orders and continuously decline in new ship prices. The world economy in 2016 is expected to be marginally better than that in 2015. The shipping market trade will achieve a year-on-year growth, but is dii cult to withstand the huge increase of the capacity in 2016, still resulting in the market imbalance. The new shipbuilding market in 2016 will be worse than that in 2015, but the bulk carrier, container ship and tanker may have local opportunities, and the ocean engineering market will still be sluggish.

关 键 词：供求失衡 市场分化 

分 类 号：F416.474[经济管理—产业经济]