The Empirical Analysis on the Dynamic Effect of Rural-urban Migration on the Consumption Growth of Residents in China——Based on Varying Parameter State-space Model  

乡城人口迁移对我国居民消费增长动态影响的实证分析——基于变参数状态空间模型方法（英文）

作　　者：邹小芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《Agricultural Science & Technology》2016年第2期471-475,共5页农业科学与技术（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by Programs for Science and Technology Development of Hubei Rural Practical Talents Team Office(2013LK001)~~

摘　　要：The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.基于城乡二元经济结构的特征,构建变参数状态空间模型对乡城人口迁移与居民总消费支出的动态关系进行了估计。结果表明,城镇居民消费增长对居民总消费增长的拉动作用最大;乡城人口迁移引致的消费支出对居民总消费增长的拉动作用次之,且呈现跳跃上升趋势;农村居民消费增长的拉动作用正处于稳中有升阶段;人口增长引致的消费支出的拉动作用的影响力仍在不断下降。因此,当前我国居民消费增长主要依赖的是城镇居民消费支出的增长和农村人口向城镇的迁移引起的消费增加。

关 键 词：Rural-urban migration Household consumption expenditure URBANIZATION State-space Model 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]