金融稳定国际指标及其对中国的适用性  

International Financial Stability Indicators and Their Applicability in China

作　　者：刘诺[1] 余道先[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《经济管理》2016年第3期1-11,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"服务业总体规模;结构演进的历史趋势和内在机理研究"(11BJL064)

摘　　要：金融稳定问题一直受到世界各国的关注,随着金融体系越来越趋向开放性、动态性和复杂性,其潜在风险不断暴露,金融不稳定的可能性长期存在。因此,选择适合中国国情的金融稳定评价体系,正确评估金融风险、有效维护金融稳定、预防危机的发生十分必要。本文首先基于IMF提出的金融稳定国际指标,对中国和其他国家及地区进行国别比较,并通过实证检验得出该指标体系并不适用于中国的结论。然后分别选取六个宏观经济指标、六个机构层次指标和七个市场层次指标,建立符合我国发展水平和所处阶段的金融稳定指标体系。经过实证检验,该指标体系对金融不稳定有一定的解释能力:相较于金融机构内部风险,宏观环境和市场波动对金融稳定性的影响更为显著。研究结论为金融管理当局重点监控和考核的对象提供了参考,也为完善我国金融稳定指标体系提供了新的可能。The problem of financial stability has always been concerned by countries around the world. Following the increasingly open, dynamic and complex financial system, the potential risks have exposed continually and the possibility of financial instability may exist in long term. Especially after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007, the turmoil in international financial market was drastic and has not been fully re- stored until now. Therefore it is necessary to choose a proper evaluation system of financial stability to assess finan- cial risks, effectively maintain the stability of financial markets and prevent crises. The concept of financial stability in the modern sense was produced in the early 1990s, but it was not until af- ter the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that the international community has paid great attention to it. However, there is no consensus on the definition of financial stability. The instability of finance is generally divided into two catego- ries： the financial crisis and financial deterioration. The former triggers a run on financial institutions and causes lack of liquidity, with currency devaluation by the market selling a large number of local currency ; the latter is due to the large amount of non-performing loans and low capital adequacy ratio in the financial system, First of all based on international financial stability indicators created by IMF, this paper compares China with other nations and are- as, and obtains the result that this indicator system is not suitable for China. Second, this paper proposes the index system of financial stability in China after modification of FSIs core index. The system includes 6 macroeconomic in- dicators and 13 micro-prudential indicators, providing more comprehensive evaluation of China＇s economic stability in deposit absorption institutions, money market, stock market, insurance market, foreign exchange market and the real estate market as well as overall macro-economy, and trying to find crisis warning system that accord

关 键 词：金融稳定 金融不稳定 金融稳定指标体系 预测 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]