基于物元矩阵和理想点法的岩爆烈度预测  

Prediction of Rockburst Intensity Based on Matter-element Matrix and Ideal Point Method

作　　者：刘磊磊[1,2] 张绍和[1,2] 王晓密[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学有色金属成矿预测教育部重点实验室,长沙410083 [2]中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《地下空间与工程学报》2016年第1期205-212,共8页Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51074180)

摘　　要：针对岩爆烈度预测问题,采用物元矩阵和理想点法进行了相关研究。在综合考虑影响岩爆发生的主要因素的基础上,以影响岩爆烈度的围岩最大切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度比σθσc、岩石单轴抗压强度与岩石单轴抗拉强度比σcσt和弹性能量指数wet等三个常用影响因子为评价指标,并且通过改进的层次分析法和熵值法相结合的组合赋权法来评价各个指标的影响程度,构建了岩爆烈度的物元矩阵,以靠近岩爆烈度理想点的远近程度为判断标准,基于此原理建立了岩爆烈度预测的物元-理想点模型。最后,将该模型应用于秦岭隧道、灵宝东峪矿区和冬瓜山铜矿的岩爆烈度预测中,结果表明,该模型的预测结果与实际岩爆烈度基本一致,验证了该模型的可行性。同时,将本文模型和ANN法、Bayes法以及DDA法进行比较,预测结果大致相同,且该模型不需要任何先验知识,求解过程完全由样本驱动,可操作性较强,进一步证明了该模型的合理性和有效性。Based on matter-element matrix and ideal point method,a study has been done aiming at the prediction problem of rockburst intensity. Considering the key affecting factors of rockburst,factors such as the ratio of maxi-σθmum tangential stress to rock unaxial compressive strength,the ratio of rock unaxial compressive strength to rockσcσc unaxial tensile strength and elastic energy index wσetare chosen as evaluation indexes. And according to the importtance of these factors,combined weight method is adopted to give weight to these three factors. Then,the matter-element matrix related to rockburst intensity is established and by taking degree of closeness to the ideal point of rockburst intensity as judgement standard,the model based on matter-element matrix and ideal point method is built. Fi-nally,the model is applied to the prediction of rockburst intensity for Qinling Tunnel,Dongyu rock mine in Lingbao and Dongguashan copper mine. The results show that the predictions of rockburst intensity are nearly consistent with the actual situations,which verify the feasibility of the model. Furthermore,comparing this model with the methods of ANN,DDA and Bayes,the prediction results of them are approximately the same. In addition,there is no need to rely on experiences by using this model and the solving process is entirely driven by the samples so that the model has a strong operability,which further proves the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：岩爆 烈度预测 理想点法 物元矩阵 组合赋权法 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]