基于停电性质分类的多环节电网可靠性评估方法  

Reliability evaluation based on outage character classification for multi-level power grid

作　　者：郑文杰[1] 黄嘉健[1] 孙川[2] 汪隆君[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司电力科学研究院广东省智能电网新技术企业重点实验室,广东广州510080 [2]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2016年第3期129-135,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51307063);国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAA01B02);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20120172120042)~~

摘　　要：传统供电可靠性评估未全面考虑输电网因素和管理控制指标的影响,因此提出基于停电性质分类的多环节电网可靠性评估方法。该方法引入输配连接点建立多环节电网供电可靠性关系,采用可靠性网络等值法量化输电网故障对故障停电可靠性指标的影响,有效解决了数据缺失的问题并简化了工程;利用岭迹图筛选出主要电网生产管理控制指标、确定岭参数值,基于岭回归分析量化管理控制指标对预安排停电可靠性指标的影响,以便发掘管控增强措施。对某供电局进行供电可靠性评估,结果表明所提模型及方法能更加精准地评估电网可靠性指标。Since the traditional reliability evaluation of power grid ignores the influences of transmission network factors and management control indexes,a method of reliability evaluation based on the outage character classification is proposed for multi-level power grid,which introduces the transmission-distribution connecting points to establish the reliability relationship between levels and applies the reliability network equivalent method to quantify the impact of transmission grid fault on the outage reliability index for solving the data lack problem and simplifying the engineering. The ridge trace curve is used to select the main management control indices and determine the ridge parameters. The ridge regression analysis is applied to quantify the impact of management control index on the scheduled outage reliability index for exploring the enhancement measures of management control. The power-supply reliability of a bureau is evaluated and the results show the proposed model and solution evaluate the grid reliability index more accurately.

关 键 词：多环节电网 可靠性 评估 连接点 岭回归分析 停电 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]