整层大气水汽含量统计外推方法应用讨论  

Discussion on Application of Statistical Extrapolation Method for Whole Integrated Water Vapor Content

作　　者：申彦波[1,2] 王炳忠 王香云[1,2] 郭鹏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局风能太阳能资源中心,北京100081 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2016年第1期181-187,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306048)

摘　　要：采用中国24个高空站2010年和2011年的小时数据,通过对天气尺度整层大气水汽含量的具体计算试验并结合已有的气候学统计研究,探讨了气候时间尺度与天气时间尺度在推算方法上的差异。结果表明:两种时间尺度的整层大气水汽含量推算存在着明显的差别,不能相互替代;整层大气水汽含量的气候学统计外推方法有较好的规律可循,而天气尺度的计算则有较大的不确定性,时空上也不存在显著一致性;对于没有探空数据而又需要进行天气尺度整层大气水汽含量推算的情况,可在气候相近的区域中尽可能选择邻近的探空站进行推算,但用于建立回归方程的数据不宜少于两年。Surface water vapor pressure could be used to extrapolate the whole integrated water vapor content,but the calculation methods of different temporal scales should be distinct in specific application,which is still in confusion in the domestic existing research.Adopting the hourly data from 24 aerological meteorological stations in the year of 2010 and 2011 in China,basing on the specific calculations and tests of the synoptic scale atmospheric vapor content and combined with the existing statistical studies of the climatology,discussing the differences of the calculation method between climate scales and weather scale,and finally this paper comes to the conclusion that there are obvious differences between the extrapolation methods for the whole integrated water vapor content of two kinds of temporal scale,and it＇s not suitable to confuse them,much less replace each other.Climatology statistical extrapolation methods of the whole integrated water vapor content have good rules to follow.However,calculations of weather scale still have big uncertainty,and there is remarkable inconsistency in time and space.If there is no aerological data and the extrapolation of synoptic scale atmospheric vapor content is needed,it＇s workable to choose nearby aerological stations in similar climate areas as far as possible to extrapolate,but the data which are used to establish the regression equation should not be less than 2 years.

关 键 词：整层大气水汽含量 地面水汽压 气候尺度 天气尺度 统计外推方法 

分 类 号：P426.15[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]