入境旅游影响因素及其空间效应计量——以上海市为例  

The Spatial Correlation and Difference of Influencing Factors of Urban Inbound Tourism:A Case Study of Shanghai

作　　者：吴杨[1,2] 倪欣欣 马仁锋[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学城市与区域经济系 [2]华东师范大学旅游系 [3]宁波大学城市科学系 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

出　　处：《财经科学》2016年第3期122-132,共11页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(项目编号:41301110)资助

摘　　要：以上海市16个区为研究单元,基于SLM、SEM模型研究并引入地理加权回归(GWR)模型解析微观尺度视角入境旅游影响因素的空间关联特征及其空间分异。研究表明:入境游客在空间上具有正相关性和集聚特征;旅游资源数量和旅游服务接待设施对入境游客数量有积极的影响,而旅游资源质量的提高对入境游客数量有负向影响,存在"旅游资源诅咒"现象。宏观经济不是影响上海各区入境游客数量的主要因素;各影响因素的系数存在空间非平稳性,旅游资源数量因素形成了以西南三区为核心,向东北扩散的圈层,旅游资源质量因素的空间影响特征形成由东向西递减的空间结构,旅游服务接待设施因素的空间影响特征形成北高南低特征;邻近地区入境游客数量对本地区有负向影响,各区间不存在空间溢出。Under the background of downward pressure of the inbound tourism in Shanghai,this research focusing on inbound tourism in Shanghai region helps to strengthen the inbound tourism economic development of the city. This paper analyzes the spatial correlation and difference of inbound tourism of 16 districts in Shanghai on the basis of inbound tourism data in 2003,2008 and 2012,by using SLM model,SEM model and Geographically Weighted Regression（ GWR） model. The study found that： ①Inbound tourists features positive correlation and clustering in space. ②The abundance of tourism resources and tourism services and facilities have a positive impact on the number of inbound tourists,while the improvement of tourism resources quality has a negative effect, which illustrates the existence of＂tourism resource curse＂ phenomenon. The macroeconomic factors are not main factors which influence the number of inbound tourists in different districts in Shanghai region. ③The coefficient of each influencing factor shows spatial non- stationary. The number of tourism resources appears the ring structure with the three districts in southwest as the core and spreading to the northeast; the quality of tourism resources features the spatial structure of descending from east to west; while the tourism services and facilities characterize being lower from north to south; ④The number of inbound tourists in neighboring districts has a negative impact,indicating that there is no spatial spillover effect between districts.

关 键 词：入境旅游 空间关联 影响因素 空间效应 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]