山东省南四湖流域2020年需水预测研究  

Forecasting of Water Requirements of South-Four-Lake Basin in Shandong Province in 2020

作　　者：庞志平[1] 董洁[1] 刁艳芳[1] 王刚[1] 甘言文 杨承磊[2] 李宗鹏 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271000 [2]济南城建集团有限公司,山东济南250000 [3]山东三箭置业集团有限公司,山东济南250000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2016年第3期48-50,55,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41202174);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201022);教育部博士点基金资助项目(2012370212120020)

摘　　要：利用灰色系统、多元线性回归分析和用水定额法对山东省南四湖流域2020 年需水量进行了预测.结果表明：灰色系统预测模型预测需水量时误差较大,多元线性回归分析和用水定额法预测结果精度较高.经过预测,山东省南四湖流域2020 年需水量为55.924 亿～63.936 亿m^3.This research predicted the water requirements of the South?Four?Lake basin in Shandong Province by using gray system model, multiple linear regression analysis and water quota law method. The results show that there are certain limitations in gray system model, meanwhile there is better accuracy in multiple linear regression analysis and water quota law method which can be used to predict water requirements for the South?Four?Lake basin in Shandong Province. The prediction result of the water demand of South?Four?Lake basin in Shandong Province is 5.592 4-6.393 6 billion m3 , which is reasonable.

关 键 词：需水预测 灰色系统 多元线性回归 用水定额法 南四湖流域 山东省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]