城镇化模式选择、生产性服务业集聚与居民消费  

Urbanization Model Selection,Producer Services Agglomeration,and Household Consumption

作　　者：汤向俊[1] 马光辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学公共管理学院,江苏镇江212003 [2]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,陕西西安710047

出　　处：《财贸研究》2016年第1期45-51,共7页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"城镇化;服务业发展驱动我国消费需求扩张的路径选择研究"(13CJL044);国家自然科学基金青年项目"房地产价格波动--经济增长的效应检验与基于收入分配和贫富差距视角的社会和谐影响研究"(71103046)

摘　　要：为了分析城镇化模式选择、生产性服务业集聚及二者交互效应对中国居民消费的影响,构建一个理论模型,并利用中国261个地级市2001—2010年间面板数据实证检验。结果表明:市辖区人口规模对居民消费率的影响呈U型,现阶段,2/3左右的市辖区人口规模仍然处于U型曲线拐点左半段;市辖区人口规模与生产性服务业集聚交叉项对居民消费率的影响显著为正,东部区域更为显著。因此,应坚持大中城市为主的发展模式,发挥城镇化与生产性服务业的集聚效应,为顺利实现经济增长方式转型创造条件。In order to analyze urbanization model selection,producer services agglomeration and the effect of their interaction mechanism on household consumption rate,a theoretical model is built by conducting a positive analysis of panel data from 2001 to 2010 in 261 cities. Theoretical and empirical results showthat the effect of urban area population size on household consumption rate is U- shaped; two- thirds of municipal district population is on the left half segment of inflection point of U- shaped curve; the effect on household consumption rate by interaction mechanism of producer services agglomeration and urban area population size is significantly positive,which is more noticeable in eastern region. Accordingly,it is advisable to adhere to large cities development model and bring into full play the effect of urbanization and concentration of producer services,to pave the way for a successful transformation of economic growth model.

关 键 词：城镇化 服务业集聚 居民消费 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济] F063.2