基于前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量的手足口病早期预警方法及其实证研究  

Establishment and Performance of Early Warning Method for Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease Based on Prospective Space-Time Permutation Scan Statistics

作　　者：孙玮璇 廖志林[1,3] 毛绍菊 唐寒梅[1] 傅燕艳[1] 曹飞[1] 陈宝[1] 黄鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,南昌330006 [2]深圳市福田区妇幼保健院公共卫生健康服务部,广东深圳518045 [3]南昌三三四医院急诊科,南昌330001

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（医学版）》2015年第6期80-83,共4页Journal of Nanchang University：Medical Sciences

基　　金：江西省卫生计生委科技计划项目(20153010)

摘　　要：目的尝试建立"基于前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量的手足口病早期预警方法",并通过实证研究考察该方法的实际预警效果。方法利用2012年南昌市手足口病的监测数据及所辖区县的地理坐标,以区县为单位,基于前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量,应用时空重排模型逐日扫描南昌市手足口病的时空聚集性特征,获取聚集区的预警日期和预警信号持续时间,并将模拟得到的监测预警信息与实际报告的手足口病聚集性疫情信息进行比较,验证前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在手足口病早期预警应用中的可行性。结果 2012年南昌市共有4个聚集区域分别在2012年3月28日、4月6日、4月9日、8月20日发出预警,覆盖4个区县。其中一类聚集区包括青云谱区、东湖区和青山湖区,进贤县为二类聚集区;与2012年手足口病实际疫情时间进行对比,4个区县模拟得到的预警时间均较实际报告的疫情时间提前,其中东湖区和进贤县均提前6d以上。结论基于前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量的手足口病早期预警方法具有一定的实际应用价值。Objective To try to establish an early warning method for hand,foot and mouth disease（HFMD）based on the prospective space-time permutation scan statistics,and to test its actual efficacy through empirical research.Methods Using the surveillance data of HFMD for2012 and the geographic coordinates of districts and counties,space-time clustering characteristics of HFMD in Nanchang were determined based on the prospective space-time permutation scan statistics to obtain the warning date and warning signal duration.In addition,the simulated warning information was compared with the reported epidemic information regarding HFMD to verify the feasibility of the prospective space-time permutation scan statistics in early warning for HFMD.Results Four clusters from 4counties in Nanchang in 2012 were detected on March 28,April 6,April 9and August 20,respectively.The most likely clusters included Qingyunpu district,Donghu district and Qingshanhu district.Jinxian county was deemed to be the secondary cluster.The simulated warning time from 4clusters was obtained ahead of the actual epidemic time of HFMD.Among them,the simulated warning time from Donghu district and Jinxian district was obtained more than 6days ahead of the actual epidemic time.Conclusion The early warning method based on the prospective space-time permutation scan statistics has a certain practical application value.

关 键 词：手足口病 时空重排 扫描统计量 预警 

分 类 号：R197.2[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]