“十三五”时期中国经济增长潜力和前景分析  

Analyzing the potential and prospects for China's economy growth during the 13th Five Year Plan period

作　　者：李稻葵[1,2] 石锦建[1,2] 金星晔[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院 [2]清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心

出　　处：《投资研究》2015年第12期4-19,共16页Review of Investment Studies

摘　　要：本文主要分析"十三五"时期中国经济的增长潜力和前景。根据国际比较和历史经验,我们分析认为中国已经具备了实现跨越发展的三大条件:稳定而支持市场经济发展的政府、较高水平的人力资本、对发达经济体开放,进而中国在未来10-15年仍将具备7%或以上中高速增长的潜力。释放潜力需做好三个方面:第一,充分发挥大国经济发展优势,中国经济的地区收敛效应在"十三五"期间能够带来年均1%的GDP增长潜力。第二,通过改革充分发掘我们定义的有效劳动供给以延长人口红利期,有效劳动供给的增长将在"十三五"期间带来年均0.3%-0.7%的GDP增长潜力。第三,合理应对TPP等国际经济金融新格局的挑战。从"十三五"前期经济增长前景来看,在消费回升和投资企稳带动下,中国经济有望在2016年上半年触底企稳并缓慢回升。This paper analyzes China＇s economic potential and prospects during the 13 th Five Year Plan period. According to international comparison and historical experience, we believe China meets the three main requirements of sustainable economic growth, which consists of a stable government supporting the development of market economy, relatively high-level human capital and staying open to developed economies. Altogether, they would contribute to China＇s potential of 7% or higher growth rate in the next 10 to 15 years. There are three key aspects to fulfill the growth potential. First, fully take the advantage of large-scale economy, which would lead to a 1% GDP growth potential under regional convergence effect during the 13 th Five Year Plan period. Second, extend the demographic dividends by reform to make full use of the effective labor supply we define and calculate, which would bring a 0.3%-0.7% GDP growth potential during the 13 th Five Year Plan period. Third, appropriately respond to changes in the world economic and financial system such as TPP. From the prospective of economic growth at the beginning of the 13 th Five Year Plan, China＇s economic growth rate is expected to rebound after hitting bottom in the first half of 2016, driven by boosted consumption and stabilized investment.

关 键 词：“十三五”时期 中国经济 增长潜力 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]