2014/15榨季中国食糖生产形势分析与2015/16榨季展望  

Domestic Sugar Production Situation in 2014/15 Crushing Season and Its Prospect for 2015/16 Crushing Season

作　　者：王新超 刘晓雪[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京淡水投资管理有限公司,北京100022 [2]北京工商大学,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2015年第12期36-41,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-20-11B);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"糖料市场;贸易及产业政策研究"

摘　　要：分析了2014/15榨季中国食糖主产区糖料生产形势和农户种植行为,同时基于相关调研数据展望了2015/16榨季糖料与食糖生产情况。研究结果表明,2015/16榨季中国糖料种植面积下滑约10%,广西和海南甘蔗种植面积分别为68.67万hm^2和低于4万hm^2,全国食糖产量降至900万t,大约下滑15%。由于甘蔗收购价定价机制的改变、果葡糖浆替代食糖消费可能增强以及厄尔尼诺预期增强,食糖产量下滑的程度仍存在一定变数。The authors analyzed sugar crops planting situation and farmers＇ planting behavior in 2014/15 crushing season, and expected sugar crops and sugar production in 2015/16 crushing season based on the relative survey data. The results showed that the total sugar crops planting area would probably drop by 10% in 2015/16 crushing season, which indicated that the planting area in Guangxi and Hainan might respectively be 0.686 7 million hectares and less than 0.04 million hectares, China＇s sugar production would probably drop by 15% to 9 million tons. As the potential influential factors such as the pricing mechanism change of the sugarcane purchase price, increase of substitution of the high fructose corn syrup for sugar consumption, and the enhancing expectation for EI Nino happening, the extent of the decline of sugar production was still variable.

关 键 词：食糖 生产形势 甘蔗 价差 甘蔗收购价格 进口政策 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]