铁路建设对我国“一带一路”战略的贸易效应研究——基于运输时间和运输距离视角的异质性随机前沿模型分析  

The Effect of Railroads on Trade Along the Belt and Road Initiative: A Heterogeneity Stochastic Frontier Model Analysis Based on Transportation Time and Distance

作　　者：龚静[1] 尹忠明[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学国际商学院,611130 [2]北方民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2016年第2期14-25,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：西南财经大学2014年度中央高校基本科研业务费博士生课题项目“运输时间对我国省际对外贸易发展的影响研究(JBK1407166)”;西南财经大学“中央高校基本科研业务费(JBK120403)”的资助成果;国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国对外直接投资与国内产业结构转型升级的内外联动机制研究(13BJY082)”

摘　　要："一带一路"战略是我国经济转型与升级的跳板,道路联通与贸易畅通作为其近期目标备受关注。在此背景下,本文利用29个省市1998-2013年的面板数据,通过构建异质性随机前沿模型分析了铁路建设对各省市贸易非效率部分的影响,进而测算出其相应的出口贸易效率。模型回归结果表明,铁路运输时间节省及运输距离减少均能够有效提高出口贸易效率,且铁路里程的缩短还具有稳定出口贸易效率波动的作用;同时,要素禀赋对出口贸易规模影响显著,政府干预度对出口贸易效率及其波动性也有显著影响。经过测算可知,当前我国各省市平均的出口贸易效率约为67.3%,呈现出"东高西低"的地区差异特征,今后仍具有较大的出口贸易潜力空间。The ＂Belt and Road＂ strategy is China＇s springboard for transforming and upgrading its economy. As short-term goals within the strategy, the connection of transportation systems and the free flow of trade have attracted significant attention. This paper analyzes the impact of railroads on the trade non- efficiency in 29 provinces and cities from 1998 through 2013 with a heterogeneity stochastic frontier model and estimates the corresponding export efficiency. The result indicates that the reduction of time and distance effectively improves the efficiency of the export trade, and the shortening of railway mileages has a stabilizing effect on the efficiency of exports. In addition, factor endowments have a considerable impact on the scale of the export trade, and government intervention has significant influence on the efficiency and fluctuation of exports. Our calculations show that the current efficiency of the Chinese export trade is about 67.3%on average and is higher in the east than in the west. In the future, China still has great potential in its export sector.

关 键 词：运输时间 运输距离 对外贸易 “一带一路”倡议 异质性随机前沿模型 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]