Scenario-based approach for project portfolio selection in army engineering and manufacturing development  

作　　者：Pengle Zhang Kewei Yang Yajie Dou Jiang Jiang 

机构地区：[1]College of Information System and Management,National University of Defense Technology

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》2016年第1期166-176,共11页系统工程与电子技术（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71571185;71201168)

摘　　要：The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.

关 键 词：scenario-based interdependency group decision making project portfolio selection portfolio decision analysis 

分 类 号：E27[军事—军事理论]