不确定环境下特高压远距离风电专用通道落点方案决策的灵敏度分析  

Sensitivity Analysis for Decision-Making of UHV Long Distance Power Transmission Site Selection Under Uncertainty Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：金维刚[1] 李勇[1] 印永华[2] 秦晓辉[2] 汪文达[3] 郭晓云[3] 崔雪[3] 刘会金[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家电网公司华中分部(华中电网有限公司),湖北省武汉市430077 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京市海淀区100192 [3]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北省武汉市430072

出　　处：《电网技术》2016年第3期889-896,共8页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家电网公司2014年科技项目(XT71-14-039)~~

摘　　要：特高压风电专用通道落点布局需要综合考虑风电有效输出、电网结构合理优化、电网运行安全稳定等各个方面,是一个复杂的多目标决策问题,风电输出的随机性及电网结构的不断调整又会给决策过程带来不确定因素,这些不确定因素将直接影响到决策结果的稳定性,因此,对决策过程中的指标值和指标权重的不确定性进行灵敏度分析非常有必要。以此为目的,首先构建了风电落点方案优选评价指标体系,分析指出了各指标的不确定性和模糊性特点,其次为了客观评价各综合评价法的优劣,基于简单加权的专家调查法、熵权法和灰色关联分析法3种综合评价法,分别以单一指标属性值变化和多个主观权重同时变化时采用不同的综合评价法求得的各备选方案综合评价值为样本数据,引入云模型进行灵敏度分析,对比各综合评价法下决策结果的鲁棒性情况,帮助决策者选择决策结果鲁棒性更好的综合评价方法。最后通过特高压风电落点算例分析,验证了此方法在实际工程应用中的有效性和进行灵敏度分析的必要性。Ultra-High Voltage（UHV） substation site selection is a complex multi-attribute decision making problem due to conflicting objectives and technical and valuation uncertainties involved. Sensitivity analysis on uncertainties of valuation and index weights is needed for guiding decision makers throughout decision process and enabling confident and stable choices. This paper points out uncertainty and fuzziness of indexes by analyzing evaluation index system of wind power substation site selection. Then, aimed to evaluate different evaluation methods including Delphi, Entropy and Grey relational analysis, comprehensive values for alternative schemes obtained with different methods with different indices and weights are taken as sample data, and cloud model is introduced to compare robustness of decision-making results for these methods and to help decision makers choose appropriate optimization method for UHV substation site selection outcome with better robustness. Finally, example analysis results verify effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper, so as to gain insight into sensitivity analysis of decision problem and relate it back to real engineering application.

关 键 词：特高压 灵敏度 指标值 指标权重 云模型 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]