非常规天然气勘探开发评价及影响综述  

A review of evaluation and impacts from exploration and development of unconventional gas

作　　者：孙肖阳[1] 张宝生[1] 魏新强 郭克强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京102249 [2]中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京100724

出　　处：《中国矿业》2016年第3期1-10,共10页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目资助(编号:13&ZD159)

摘　　要：北美页岩气开发开启了非常规天然气资源勘探开发的新纪元,引起了全球的关注。但是全球特别是北美以外地区的非常规天然气地质特征、资源量和经济评价效果仍然不确定,非常规天然气开发利用带来的社会经济和环境影响尚未可知。非常规天然气勘探开发评价研究表明非常规天然气地质特征和分布不同于常规天然气资源,开采难度更大;资源量评估也不同于常规天然气,存在很大不确定性;经济技术评价方法主要是净现值模型和不确定分析模型。非常规天然气开发利用社会经济和环境影响研究主要是现状描述和替代效果比较。综合考虑资源、技术进步、经济成本因素,并结合各气田差异性和特殊性的全面研究还有待加强;在非常规油气开发的社会经济影响和环境影响方面,研究的方法相对简单,至今还未形成完善的研究方法与模型体系。总之,此领域存在较大的研究空间和必要性。The development of shale gas in North American has opened a new era for unconventional gas resources exploration and development,and attracted the attention all over the world.But geological characteristics,resources and economic evaluation effects of unconventional gas are still uncertain,especially in the area outside North America.Socioeconomic and environmental impacts form the development and utilization of unconventional gas remains to be studied.Unconventional gas exploration and development evaluation studies show that unconventional gas geological characteristics and distribution are different from the conventional gas resources,and it is much more difficult in the case of unconventional gas extraction.Resources evaluation are different in conventional and unconventional gas,and it is much more uncertainty.Economic and technological evaluation methods are mainly the net present value model and the uncertainty analysis model.Socioeconomic and environmental impact studies focus on description of the status quo and comparison of unconventional gas substitution effect.Comprehensive researches which combine consideration of resources,technology progress and economic cost factors with the diversity and particularity of the gas should be done in the future.In the field of socioeconomic and environmental impacts,the methods are relatively simple,and have not yet formed perfect research methods and the model systems.All in all,there is a big research space and the necessity in this field.

关 键 词：常规天然气 资源特征 资源量评估 技术经济评价 社会经济影响 环境影响 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]